Netanyahu’s Likud loses support as Maariv poll shifts Israeli political balance in Jerusalem ahead of Knesset vote showdown

A new Maariv poll released on Thursday paints a shifting picture of Israel’s political balance, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud continuing its downward trend.

At the same time, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party (RZP) managed a notable rebound, crossing the electoral threshold for the first time in nearly half a year.

The timing of the poll is significant, coming just before the coalition’s controversial bill to dissolve the Knesset passed its preliminary reading.

That political backdrop has clearly fed into a volatile moment in Israeli politics.

Coalition Gains Slight Ground While Opposition Loses Momentum

According to the survey, the governing coalition improved slightly, rising by two seats to reach 51 mandates.

In contrast, the opposition bloc slipped from a previous majority of 61 seats down to 59, narrowing its advantage but still remaining ahead.

The Arab parties held steady throughout the shift, maintaining their 10-seat presence without change. While the overall movement may look small, the adjustments reflect ongoing instability in voter sentiment.

Within the coalition, Likud’s continued decline was paired with a loss for Shas, which dropped one seat.

However, the rise of RZP helped offset those losses and contributed to the coalition’s slight recovery.

Smaller Parties Feel Pressure as Electoral Competition Tightens

The opposition camp also saw internal movement.

Both the Together Party and Yashar! each lost one seat, showing that fragmentation continues to affect smaller political groups.

Meanwhile, several parties remained below the electoral threshold, including the Reservists Party (1.4%), Blue and White (1.5%), and Balad (1.5%).

These figures suggest that despite political turbulence, voter consolidation around larger blocs is still a strong trend.

Poll Explores What Happens if Opposition Parties Merge

Maariv also tested hypothetical scenarios involving a merger between Together, Yashar!, and Yisrael Beytenu.

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In all versions of the model, the outcome remained largely unchanged in terms of overall bloc strength.

The strongest configuration appeared when former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot led the combined list. Under that setup, the alliance secured 49 seats—matching the total the parties would achieve if they ran separately.

Despite the reshuffling, the broader balance of power stayed the same: coalition at 51 seats, opposition at 59, and Arab parties holding 10.

Public Opinion Shows Strong Division Over Draft Law

Beyond seat projections, the poll highlighted a deep divide in public sentiment over the government’s proposed draft law.

Nearly half of respondents—49%—said they oppose it, while only 30% expressed support.

A significant 21% remained undecided.

This split underscores the sensitivity of the issue and suggests it could remain a major flashpoint in Israeli politics going forward.

Methodology Behind the Poll

The survey was conducted by Lazar Research, led by Dr. Menachem Lazar, in partnership with Panel4All.

It took place between May 19 and 20 and included 500 respondents aged 18 and above, representing both Jewish and Arab citizens.

The maximum margin of error was reported at 4.4%, meaning small fluctuations in seat projections should be interpreted cautiously.

Impact and Consequences

The latest numbers reinforce a political environment defined by fragmentation and uncertainty.

Likud’s continued weakening signals pressure on Netanyahu’s leadership, while the rise of smaller or previously struggling parties like RZP shows how quickly voter sentiment can shift.

For the coalition, the slight gain to 51 seats offers limited breathing room but not stability.

The opposition’s drop to 59 seats still keeps it ahead, but not decisively, suggesting neither bloc has a clear path to dominance.

Public opposition to the draft law adds another layer of tension, potentially influencing future legislative debates and political alliances.

What’s next?

If these trends continue, Israel could see intensified efforts toward party mergers or strategic alliances, especially within the opposition.

Smaller parties may be pushed to join forces simply to survive electoral thresholds.

On the government side, coalition management will likely become more delicate, with internal tensions between Likud, Shas, and RZP potentially shaping future decisions.

Much will also depend on how public debate over the draft law evolves, as it appears to be a major factor influencing voter attitudes.

Summary

The Maariv poll reflects a fluid and competitive political landscape in Israel.

While Netanyahu’s Likud continues to lose ground, the coalition manages a slight recovery thanks to gains from Religious Zionist Party.

However, no bloc holds a decisive advantage, and public opinion remains sharply divided on key policy issues.

Bulleted Takeaways

• Likud continues to weaken in latest Maariv poll
• Religious Zionist Party crosses electoral threshold again after months
• Coalition rises slightly to 51 seats, opposition drops to 59
• Arab parties remain steady at 10 seats
• Smaller opposition parties show losses or remain below threshold
• Proposed opposition mergers show no major change in seat balance
• Nearly half of Israelis oppose the government’s draft law
• Political landscape remains highly unstable and fragmented