Business leaders have been urged to distinguish between what people say in surveys and what they actually do, as conflicting economic indicators highlight the limitations of relying on consumer sentiment alone.
Kari Butcher, Burson’s Chair for Intelligence & Insights for the Americas and a former pollster, argues that companies risk making costly decisions when they interpret polling results as reliable forecasts of future behaviour.
She said businesses may reduce inventory when consumer confidence falls, assume public support for a social issue will strengthen customer loyalty, or conclude that customers will remain loyal because a company’s reputation score has not changed.
However, survey responses do not necessarily predict future purchases, employee behaviour, customer loyalty or investor reactions.
Consumer Confidence Falls as Household Spending Increases
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell by 6.7 points in September to 81.9, its lowest level since 2014.
However, government data released the following day showed that consumer spending increased by 0.9% in August, while personal income rose by 0.2%.
Households also reduced the proportion of their income set aside for savings, with the personal saving rate falling to 4.1%.
The figures present contrasting indicators of consumer behaviour. While confidence data showed growing pessimism, spending continued to increase.
Butcher said businesses that focus exclusively on confidence surveys could overlook continued consumer demand because people’s reported feelings do not always match their spending decisions.
Midterm Election Polls Offer Limited Insight Into Consumer Decisions
With the US midterm elections approaching, businesses are monitoring polling data to assess potential implications for spending, investment and the expectations of customers and employees.
According to Pew Research Center, 84% of registered voters said the economy was very important to their voting decisions.
CNN’s average of recent generic congressional ballot polls showed Democrats leading Republicans by 52% to 42%.
Butcher said such figures measure voters’ stated preferences rather than predicting how consumers, employees or investors will respond to the election outcome.
She argued that businesses need additional evidence to understand how political developments may affect purchasing decisions, workplace expectations and investment behaviour.
Michigan Senate Primary Highlights Polling Uncertainty
A Democratic Senate primary in Michigan illustrated how polling results can differ from final election outcomes.
About a week before the primary, a poll showed Abdul El-Sayed leading by 15 percentage points, with 54% support among likely primary voters compared with 39% for his opponent.
El-Sayed ultimately lost the primary by less than one percentage point, according to the article.
The difference highlighted the importance of assumptions about which respondents would actually vote.
In early October, YouGov’s chief scientist also found that estimates of the Democratic lead in the national House ballot could range from six to 16 percentage points depending on how likely voters were identified.
He described the upper estimate as almost certainly an overstatement and said more defensible methods produced a range of eight to 14 percentage points.
The responses recorded in the survey remained unchanged, while the estimated outcome varied according to assumptions about voter participation.
Multiple Polls Provide a Broader Picture
Butcher said businesses and political observers should avoid relying on a single polling result when assessing public opinion.
She referred to a late-September report by The Washington Post, which made a similar distinction between an individual poll and broader patterns across several surveys.
A single poll provides a snapshot of opinion at a particular moment, while changes across multiple polls can offer a clearer indication of developing trends.
Butcher said the same principle applies to companies assessing customer confidence and behaviour.
Burson Survey Finds Economic Anxiety Influences Consumer Intentions
Research conducted by Burson also examined how economic concerns influence Americans’ stated intentions and perceptions of businesses.
The Burson Pulse survey questioned 1,601 US adults in late April. In the survey, 61% said economic anxiety was making them save more and pay closer attention to what companies said and did.
Four months later, national data showed that households were saving a smaller share of their income.
The two findings relate to different periods and do not provide a direct test of whether respondents followed through on their stated intentions. However, they illustrate the limitations of using survey responses alone to predict subsequent behaviour.
The first wave of Burson’s research also found that 48% of Americans said their confidence in a company had declined gradually, without a single identifiable incident. Another 52% said one event had caused them to lose confidence.
The findings indicate that changes in public confidence can occur gradually or follow a specific incident, meaning an overall reputation score may not fully reveal how confidence is changing.
Businesses Urged to Combine Polling With Behavioural Data
Butcher said companies should continue using surveys but combine them with other sources of information to understand what customers are likely to do.
She recommended examining what people search for, share, purchase and do, alongside online discussions and direct feedback from consumers.
Before acting on a poll, business leaders should establish what decision the available evidence can reasonably support.
Butcher said this distinction is particularly important ahead of the US midterm elections, when polling can indicate which candidates or parties are leading but cannot, by itself, establish how customers will respond to the result.
She concluded that businesses should seek additional evidence whenever survey findings do not provide a clear basis for a decision.
