Trip.com cofounder James Liang believes the world’s declining birth rates pose a much bigger threat than shrinking populations alone.
According to the Chinese entrepreneur and longtime demographic researcher, fewer children today could translate into fewer inventors, researchers, and innovators in the decades ahead, weakening countries’ ability to remain at the forefront of technological progress.
Speaking in an interview with Fortune, Liang argued that population growth remains essential to sustaining innovation, warning that nations with rapidly aging populations may struggle to maintain their competitive edge.
Why Liang Believes More People Means More Breakthroughs
Liang’s perspective is rooted in a philosophy he describes as “innovationism,” a framework that links technological advancement directly to population size.
He argues that innovation depends heavily on the number of talented individuals contributing to scientific research, engineering, and development.
According to Liang, a larger population naturally produces a broader pool of researchers and entrepreneurs capable of generating new patents, discoveries, and technological achievements.
In his view, shrinking populations reduce the human capital available to fuel long-term economic and scientific progress.
Asia’s Population Crisis Is Becoming a Global Concern
Liang has spent years studying demographic trends, particularly in China, where he was among the most vocal critics of the country’s former One Child Policy.
Introduced decades ago to curb population growth, the policy was gradually relaxed before being completely abolished in 2021.
Despite those changes, China’s birth rate has continued to fall, reaching just 5.63 births per 1,000 people last year—the lowest level recorded since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949.
Current forecasts suggest China’s population could fall below 1.25 billion before the middle of this century.
The challenge extends well beyond China. Countries across East Asia, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, are experiencing rapid aging as growing shares of their populations move beyond retirement age.
Even developing economies that once enjoyed strong population growth—including Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and India—have seen fertility rates decline below or near the replacement level needed to maintain stable population sizes.
Liang described the trend as a worldwide issue, noting that the majority of the global population now lives in countries where fertility rates have fallen below replacement levels.
Governments Are Spending More to Encourage Families
Across Asia, policymakers have introduced numerous incentives aimed at encouraging people to have children.
These measures include expanded parental leave, childcare subsidies, direct financial incentives for new parents, and even government-sponsored matchmaking events in some regions.
While there have been modest signs of improvement—South Korea’s fertility rate has risen slightly over the past two years—Liang believes existing policies remain too limited to reverse long-term demographic decline.
He estimates that every 1% of GDP devoted to family-support initiatives increases fertility rates by only around 0.1 child per woman. Achieving population stability, he argues, would require investment on a much larger scale.
Although acknowledging such spending would be substantial, Liang contends that the long-term economic benefits would outweigh the costs.
Liang’s Preferred Policies Go Beyond Cash Bonuses
Rather than relying solely on financial rewards, Liang advocates a broader package of reforms designed to make family life easier for young adults.
His proposals include direct cash support for parents, affordable childcare, more flexible work schedules, legalized surrogacy, and efforts to reduce academic pressure on students.
He believes highly competitive education systems—particularly those built around demanding university entrance examinations in countries such as China and South Korea—discourage couples from having children because of the financial and emotional pressures associated with raising children in those environments.
Trip.com Has Turned Those Ideas Into Corporate Benefits
Liang has also implemented many of these ideas within Trip.com Group.
The travel company provides several family-oriented benefits, including complimentary transportation for pregnant employees, financial assistance for education, and support for fertility treatments such as egg freezing.
In 2023, Trip.com introduced an annual payment of 10,000 yuan (about $1,470) for every newborn child of an employee, continuing the payments until the child reaches five years old.
Two years later, the company expanded its childcare leave program so parents could receive support while raising children up to the age of 18.
Not Everyone Agrees Population Growth Drives Innovation
Liang’s views remain part of an ongoing debate among economists and demographic experts.
A recent study led by economists Daron Acemoglu and David Autor concluded that declining birth rates do not necessarily reduce economic output.
Instead, they found that lower fertility often encourages businesses to develop labor-saving technologies, boosting productivity per worker without reducing total economic growth.
Their research suggests countries experiencing demographic decline often generate more patents focused on automation and advanced technologies.
Other scholars have highlighted different explanations for falling birth rates.
Harvard economist Claudia Goldin has argued that unequal household responsibilities continue to discourage many women from having children.
Her research suggests that women increasingly postpone parenthood when domestic responsibilities remain disproportionately unequal despite greater participation in the workforce.
Liang Rejects Traditional Gender Roles
Liang dismisses the notion that declining birth rates should be addressed by encouraging women to leave their careers.
Instead, he argues that governments and employers should create conditions that allow women to pursue both professional ambitions and family life through greater financial support and increased flexibility.
He also believes fathers have a larger role to play, saying husbands and partners should take greater responsibility for raising children and sharing household duties.
Artificial Intelligence Could Make the Challenge Even Bigger
Liang believes demographic decline cannot be separated from the rapid rise of artificial intelligence.
On one hand, he sees AI as potentially reducing workloads and giving parents more time and financial security to raise larger families.
On the other, he worries that AI could eliminate entry-level jobs traditionally filled by young workers, making it harder for them to establish stable careers and start families.
His broader concern centers on humanity’s future relationship with AI.
Liang argues that if populations continue shrinking, societies may become increasingly dependent on artificial intelligence to perform tasks that once relied on human judgment.
He believes maintaining a strong human population will remain essential not only for economic growth but also for ensuring people retain meaningful oversight of increasingly powerful AI systems. As AI continues to evolve, Liang argues that preserving enough human talent may prove just as important as advancing the technology itself.
