Nearly every public appearance by President Joe Biden seems to fuel speculation about his political future. The latest incident, involving former President Barack Obama guiding Biden off the stage at a Los Angeles fundraiser, has added to the growing rumors about Biden potentially stepping down from the 2024 race.
Despite efforts by the Biden campaign and the Democratic Party to quell these rumors, the speculation about a possible replacement candidate persists.
Concerns Arise at High-Profile Events
On Saturday, at a high-profile fundraiser in Los Angeles, Barack Obama was seen reaching for Biden’s hand and gently guiding the 81-year-old President off the stage.
This incident followed an awkward moment earlier in the week at a White House Juneteenth celebration, where Biden stood motionless and stared blankly for a full minute while others sang and danced around him. Philonise Floyd, the brother of George Floyd, had to step in and assist the President.
These public episodes have reignited the “Great Joe Biden Replacement Theory,” which posits that the Democratic Party might swap out Biden as their candidate ahead of the 2024 election.
Despite the Biden campaign’s efforts to dismiss this theory, it remains a topic of significant discussion among political analysts and voters.
Polling and Public Opinion
Polling expert Nate Silver recently highlighted Biden’s plummeting approval ratings, which have hit a new low of 37.4 percent.
Silver noted that concerns about Biden’s age are both understandable and significant, given that Biden is asking voters to support him through his 86th year if re-elected.
These concerns have led to increased speculation about whether Biden will—or should—continue his campaign.
Criticism from Prominent Figures
The criticism isn’t just coming from polling analysts. Atlantic columnist Mark Leibovich compared Biden to the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who faced criticism for not retiring during Barack Obama’s presidency.
Political strategist James Carville has also publicly stated that Biden should not have run for re-election. These voices add weight to the growing calls for Biden to reconsider his candidacy.
Biden’s Backers’ Bold Move
In an attempt to silence critics, Biden’s supporters, including David Axelrod, have scheduled an early presidential debate on June 27 on CNN.
This move is designed to demonstrate Biden’s capability and resolve. However, it carries significant risk. A strong performance could rally Democratic support, but a poor showing might only fuel further calls for his replacement.
Former Clinton advisor Mark Penn suggested that this debate could be Biden’s last chance to reassure voters of his fitness for office.
The outcome of this debate may very well determine the future of his campaign.
The Replacement Process
If Biden’s debate performance or polling numbers continue to decline, a united front of influential Democrats, including Obama, Bill Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, and Chuck Schumer, might pressure Biden to step down.
This would be a high-risk maneuver, akin to turning around a doomed container ship, but some party insiders believe it could be done if carefully planned.
Political columnist Joe Klein theorized that a young, energetic candidate could win over the electorate with a powerful convention speech.
This candidate would need to unite disaffected Democrats and moderate independents, much like Barack Obama’s famous 2004 Democratic Convention address.
Challenges with Vice President Harris
One significant complication is Vice President Kamala Harris. Sources indicate that if Biden steps down, Harris would not automatically become the nominee, despite her position.
The party would face backlash from progressives if she were bypassed, but some believe she has not performed strongly enough as Vice President to be a viable candidate on her own.
Potential Strategies for Replacement
If Biden were to step aside, Democratic leaders would need to manage the transition carefully. They might stage a public event where Biden and other top Democrats endorse the new candidate, potentially smoothing over any intra-party conflicts.
This process would also involve convincing Harris to support the new nominee, which could be a challenging negotiation.
Conclusion: High Stakes for Democrats
As the 2024 election approaches, the Democratic Party faces a series of difficult decisions. President Biden remains committed to his achievements and his desire to defeat Donald Trump once again.
However, if his party becomes convinced that he cannot win, they may be compelled to take drastic, unprecedented actions to secure their chances in the upcoming election.
The next few months will be crucial in determining the Democratic strategy and the future of Biden’s presidency.
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