Growing concerns over depleted US weapons stocks are raising questions about Washington’s ability to deter Russia and China, particularly if the shortages persist for years.
Senior US officials and defence experts told The New York Times that the heavy use of American offensive and defensive weapons during the conflict with Iran could leave the country with reduced capacity to respond to another major war.
Tom Karako, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, described the depletion as a historic blow to America’s conventional deterrence capabilities.
He warned that Moscow and Beijing could factor the weakened stockpiles into their own strategic calculations, particularly because rebuilding the US arsenal could take years.
Iran War Puts Heavy Pressure on US Arsenal
The scale of American weapons consumption during the Iran conflict has emerged as a major concern inside the Pentagon.
Reuters recently reported that the US had used virtually all of its highly accurate long-range missiles, with individual weapons costing roughly $1 million to manufacture.
Other reports have detailed the extensive use of Tomahawk cruise missiles, THAAD interceptors, tactical ballistic missiles and Patriot air-defence interceptors during the fighting.
According to figures cited by The Washington Post and The New York Times, the United States fired more than 850 Tomahawks and over 1,000 THAAD missiles during the first month of the conflict.
At least 1,300 tactical ballistic missiles and roughly 1,500 Patriot interceptors were also reportedly used.
The result has been increased pressure on a military already trying to maintain its commitments across several regions.
Pentagon Forced to Shift Forces Around the World
The shortage has also affected the positioning of American military assets.
US ships, aircraft and air-defence systems have reportedly been moved from Europe and the Indo-Pacific toward the Middle East to support operations against Iran.
Officials told the NYT that the redeployments have produced wider consequences for military readiness, including pressure on equipment maintenance and troop morale.
The concern is that a prolonged conflict could leave fewer weapons and defensive systems available for unexpected crises elsewhere.
Trump Administration Faces Growing Pressure
The weapons shortage has reportedly become a source of tension between the White House and Pentagon leadership.
Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine is said to have raised concerns about the availability of key munitions before the conflict began and has reportedly explored possible ways to reduce the pressure created by the war.
Despite those warnings, President Donald Trump proceeded with military action against Iran.
The administration has since pushed defence companies to accelerate production and expand manufacturing capacity.
Trump said in July that American defence companies were producing more munitions than ever while expanding factories and equipment at an unprecedented pace.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt similarly defended the administration’s efforts, saying defence manufacturers were increasing production and expanding their facilities.
Trump Pushes Back Against Claims of Military Weakness
Trump has publicly rejected suggestions that the United States is running dangerously low on weapons.
The President has reportedly expressed frustration over leaks concerning American stockpiles and has sought to prevent adversaries from viewing the shortages as a sign of weakness.
At one point, Trump said the US had “far more munitions than anyone in the world” and more than it needed.
But reports about declining stocks have continued to emerge, creating an apparent gap between the administration’s public messaging and concerns being raised by military officials and defence analysts.
The Washington Post also reported that Trump confronted Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth over the issue after apparently believing the shortages had already been resolved.
Ukraine Feels the Impact of US Weapons Shortages
The consequences are already being felt by US partners, particularly Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly warned about shortages of missile interceptors needed to protect cities from Russian attacks.
After a recent Russian strike, Zelensky argued that additional interceptors could have prevented deaths and warned that a lack of ballistic missile defences could encourage Moscow to launch further attacks.
Trump has also reportedly stepped back from an earlier public indication that Ukraine would receive approval to produce Patriot interceptors, although Kyiv has continued discussions with American defence companies.
The shortages have therefore become more than an American logistical problem, with allies increasingly concerned about whether Washington can maintain long-term military support.
Russia Sees Opportunity in America’s Reduced Stockpiles
The situation has attracted attention in Russia, where pro-Kremlin commentators have portrayed declining American weapons stocks as an advantage for Moscow.
Russian war blogger Aleksandr Kots argued that the fewer precision-guided weapons available to the US, the fewer weapons would ultimately reach Ukraine.
He also suggested that even a future US administration seeking to increase assistance to Kyiv could face serious limitations if American arsenals remained depleted.
Such assessments have heightened concerns among Western officials that a lengthy Iran conflict could have consequences far beyond the Middle East.
Taiwan and Asia Could Also Be Exposed
The US weapons shortage is particularly sensitive in Asia because of Washington’s commitments to Taiwan and its military presence across the Indo-Pacific.
During the Iran conflict, some Tomahawk and other long-range missile shipments were reportedly redirected away from the US Indo-Pacific Command.
Air-defence systems were also reportedly moved from South Korea to the Middle East, potentially leaving American forces on the Korean Peninsula more exposed.
Any prolonged shortage could therefore complicate US planning for a crisis involving China and Taiwan, while simultaneously forcing Washington to balance competing security commitments.
Allies Begin Rethinking Their Own Defences
The concerns extend beyond the US military itself.
Officials in Asia have reportedly worried that countries such as Japan and South Korea could eventually reconsider their longstanding reliance on American security guarantees, including renewed debate over whether they should develop independent nuclear deterrence capabilities.
European allies are also looking for alternative sources of weapons as they encounter delays caused by America’s production backlog.
The developments could ultimately push US partners to diversify their military supply chains rather than depend so heavily on American weapons.
Defence Industry Ordered to Speed Up Production
The Pentagon is now demanding a much faster response from America’s defence industry.
Deputy Defence Secretary Steve Feinberg reportedly gave industry leaders 21 days to submit plans for significantly accelerating deliveries and increasing production of critical weapons systems.
In a memo cited by The Washington Post, Feinberg said years-long development timelines were no longer acceptable and called for an immediate expansion of manufacturing capacity.
The administration’s challenge is not simply to increase production but to rebuild stockpiles quickly enough to restore confidence in America’s ability to respond to simultaneous threats.
A Long Iran War Could Strengthen Moscow and Beijing
Analysts warn that the longer the conflict with Iran continues, the greater the potential strategic advantage for Russia and China.
If American arsenals remain depleted for years, Moscow and Beijing could calculate that Washington has less ability to respond to a major confrontation elsewhere.
That does not necessarily mean either country would choose to start a war with the United States. However, experts argue that the perception of weakened American deterrence could influence future decisions over Taiwan, Ukraine, NATO and other potential flashpoints.
For Washington, the challenge is therefore becoming a race against time: maintaining current military operations while rebuilding the weapons stockpiles that underpin America’s ability to deter its most powerful rivals.
