Social housing landlords in England are preparing to commit record sums to repairing existing properties while continuing to develop new homes, according to new financial forecasts published by the Regulator of Social Housing.
The 2026 Financial Forecasts of Private Registered Providers report, released on 6 October, suggests there are signs of greater stability in the sector’s finances.
However, the forecasts also highlight the difficult financial choices landlords face as they attempt to improve existing housing stock while increasing the supply of affordable and social-rent homes.
Landlords Face Difficult Financial Trade-Offs
The latest figures show that providers are trying to balance several competing priorities, including repairs, maintenance, new construction and the expansion of social housing.
Will Perry, Director of Strategy at the Regulator of Social Housing, said the scale of planned investment was encouraging but warned that the financial pressures involved would need to be managed carefully.
He said the sector remained committed to investing more in existing homes, building new properties and increasing the availability of social-rent housing.
The regulator’s role, he added, was to ensure landlords understood the risks and maintained the financial resilience and strategic focus required to deliver for tenants.
Financial Position Shows Signs of Stabilising
One of the key findings from the latest Financial Forecast Returns is that aggregate interest cover over the first five years of providers’ plans is broadly comparable with the previous round of forecasts.
This represents a change from a pattern seen in earlier forecasts, when the measure had declined with each successive year.
The improvement has been linked partly to a slower projected increase in repairs and maintenance spending, alongside stronger anticipated growth in rental income.
Development Plans Begin to Rise Again
The forecasts also point to a modest increase in development plans over the first five years.
That reverses the decline seen in some previous financial forecasts and suggests providers are preparing to increase housebuilding activity.
The increase becomes more pronounced over the 10-year period covered by the Social and Affordable Homes Programme.
According to the regulator, this longer-term growth reflects funding bids for government grant that were being prepared when landlords submitted their financial plans.
Billions in New Borrowing Will Be Needed
Expanding development programmes will require significant additional financing.
Providers forecast that they will need £54.7 billion in new borrowing during the first five years of their plans.
They also expect to receive £16.3 billion in additional grant funding over the same period.
The figures demonstrate the scale of investment required to maintain existing housing while simultaneously increasing the number of affordable homes being built.
Financial Pressure Varies Across the Sector
The regulator stressed that the overall figures do not tell the same story for every housing provider.
There remains considerable variation across the sector, with the largest organisations, particularly those managing more than 40,000 homes, generally reporting tighter financial positions.
That variation means individual landlords may face very different challenges when deciding how much to spend on repairs, development and other priorities.
Global Economic Changes Could Alter Future Forecasts
The financial plans used in the report were prepared during early 2026.
As a result, they do not fully capture the financial consequences of ongoing global developments or subsequent changes in inflation and interest rates.
The forecasts also predate the final outcomes of bids submitted under the Social and Affordable Homes Programme.
These factors could have a significant influence on the next round of financial forecasts submitted by providers.
New Data Published Earlier for Greater Transparency
The regulator has changed how the financial forecast information is being presented this year.
Previously, the Financial Forecast Returns data was published alongside the sector’s Global Accounts, which were released in January.
The Regulator of Social Housing has now published the forecasts separately so that stakeholders can access the information earlier.
The latest report covers providers that own or manage at least 1,000 social homes, while an accompanying dataset provides aggregated financial information for the sector as a whole and different groups of providers.
2025/26 Financial Data Will Follow in January
The newly released report does not contain financial information for the 2025/26 financial year.
That information is expected to be included in the Global Accounts publication scheduled for January 2027.
For now, the latest forecasts provide an indication of how landlords are planning to navigate the competing demands of maintaining existing social housing, improving standards and increasing the supply of affordable homes.
The figures suggest that investment ambitions remain strong, but the regulator’s warning makes clear that maintaining financial resilience will be crucial as providers attempt to deliver those plans.
