Kemi Badenoch has opened an eight-point lead over Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, according to a new opinion poll conducted by former Conservative deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft.
The survey puts the Conservatives on 26 per cent, compared with 18 per cent for Reform UK and 31 per cent for Labour.
The latest figures represent a five-point increase in the Conservatives’ lead over Reform UK in just one month, having previously stood at three points.
The results come amid growing political pressure on Farage and increased scrutiny of the cryptocurrency figures who provide financial backing to his party.
Badenoch’s Public Performances and Tax Policies Attract Support
The poll findings follow a series of public appearances by Badenoch, including her criticism of Andy Burnham in the House of Commons and confrontations with hecklers during campaign appearances.
Several of these exchanges have attracted widespread attention on social media.
Her policy proposals have also featured in voters’ responses to pollsters.
Among them is her plan to reduce inheritance tax, which she announced at the Conservative Party conference in October.
Badenoch’s aides believe Reform UK’s declining support could continue if voters increasingly view the Conservatives as the party best positioned to challenge Labour.
Lord Ashcroft Defends His Polling Methodology
Farage questioned the accuracy of the latest figures on Saturday, pointing to previous polling ahead of the May local elections.
He said: “He had us at 21 [points] the week before the May local elections, but we got 28.”
The Reform UK leader also claimed that most opinion polls underestimated his party’s share of the vote by approximately four percentage points.
However, a source close to Lord Ashcroft dismissed the comparison, describing the May elections reference as a “red herring”.
The source explained that Ashcroft’s surveys focus on general election voting intentions rather than local election preferences.
Unlike several other pollsters, Lord Ashcroft asks respondents how likely they are to vote for each political party at the next general election, rather than which party they would choose if an election were held the following day.
A spokesman for the polling operation added: “I don’t remember Nigel complaining when we had Reform nine points ahead.”
Lord Ashcroft Highlights Changing Voter Perceptions
Writing in the Mail on Sunday, Lord Ashcroft said Badenoch continued to make an impression on voters.
He described the qualities respondents associated with the Conservative leader as strong, direct, principled and articulate, adding that some considered her to have more common sense and better energy than her recent predecessors.
On Farage, Ashcroft said concerns surrounding donations, party activists, and questions about seriousness and competence had contributed to the loss of Reform UK’s momentum.
He also noted that some former supporters had begun expressing dissatisfaction with Farage, with some describing him as having become part of the establishment.
Conservatives Accuse Lisa Nandy of Using Remembrance Sunday for Brexit Debate
Separately, the Conservatives have accused Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy of using Remembrance Sunday commemorations to promote an anti-Brexit message.
The controversy followed comments by Nandy linking the Erasmus+ international student exchange programme, which the UK has agreed to rejoin as part of its EU reset agreement, with the commemorations.
The Culture Secretary said the programme would provide a new generation with opportunities to develop connections across Europe.
Her department compared those links with the relationships across the continent that veterans’ service helped establish and preserve after the Second World War.
However, Conservative Party chairman Kevin Hollinrake criticised the remarks.
He said: “Remembrance Sunday is a day for the nation to stand together in silence and honour those who gave everything for our country.
It is not a day for a Labour minister to try to make an EU membership pitch.”
Badenoch Claims EU Reset Could Cost Families £1,220
Badenoch is also preparing to intensify her criticism of Burnham’s proposed EU reset agreement, claiming it could cost each working family £1,220.
She cited a leaked draft agreement that the Prime Minister is expected to sign on November 20.
According to Badenoch, the document would require Britain to contribute towards reducing economic and social differences between regions of the European Union.
She estimated that the commitment could cost the UK £23 billion over ten years.
Labour rejected the figures, describing them as “made-up numbers from the Tories who left behind a threadbare Brexit deal that weakened our ability to control illegal immigration, slowed growth and left businesses tangled in red tape”.
EU Youth Mobility and Food Rules Also Feature in Draft Agreement
The proposed agreement also includes a youth mobility arrangement that would allow younger people from the UK and European Union to move between the two for work and other opportunities.
Critics have raised concerns that the arrangement could increase competition in the British job market by bringing more EU nationals under the age of 30 into the country.
The draft also contains provisions for Britain to align with Brussels’ food regulations in an effort to reduce border checks.
Meanwhile, former EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier warned on Sunday that Britain could not selectively choose which elements of the single market it wanted to participate in.
Survey Covered More Than 5,000 Adults
The latest figures were produced by Lord Ashcroft Polls following a survey of 5,253 adults.
The polling exercise was conducted between October 29 and November 2, with respondents asked about their likelihood of supporting the different political parties at the next general election.
