Ukraine Sounds Alarm as Russia Prepares Major Donbas Offensive and Masses Troops for High-Stakes September Land Grab

Ukrainian military intelligence says Russia is getting ready for a new ground offensive in southeastern Ukraine, with the aim of taking full control of the Donbas by September.

The warning came from Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, who said Moscow is building up forces and showing little sign that it is serious about ending the war through negotiations.

Intelligence Points to Larger Russian Build-Up

According to Skibitskyi, Russia is reinforcing its presence in Ukraine with an additional 20,000 troops drawn from strategic reserves.

He said roughly 680,000 Russian soldiers are already deployed, and Ukraine’s assessment is that these forces are being positioned for a major spring-summer campaign.

The new preparations, he suggested, are focused on southeastern Ukraine, where Russian forces are expected to try to expand their hold and complete the capture of the Donbas region.

Missile Strikes on Cities Are Becoming More Intense

Skibitskyi also said Russia has stepped up ballistic missile attacks on Ukrainian cities. He noted that Moscow is producing around 60 Iskander missiles each month and has increased the number of launch systems available for use.

That growing missile capacity, he warned, is creating a serious challenge for Ukraine, especially because the country still lacks enough modern air defense systems, including U.S.-made Patriot batteries, to shield the entire territory.

Energy Infrastructure Remains Exposed

A major part of the concern centers on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. Skibitskyi said air attacks over the winter caused heavy damage to key energy facilities, leaving them exposed as Russia refines its strike methods.

He described the recent wave of missile and drone attacks as part of a broader effort not only to cause immediate destruction, but also to soften targets and shape the battlefield ahead of a larger ground operation.

Kyiv Sees Attacks as Preparation for New Offensive

In Ukraine’s view, the rising tempo of Russian air strikes is directly linked to the coming campaign on the ground.

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Skibitskyi said the bombardment is helping prepare conditions for a fresh offensive by weakening infrastructure and increasing pressure on the country before Russian forces push forward.

That assessment suggests Kyiv sees the air war and land campaign as tightly connected parts of the same strategy.

Ukraine Says Russia Is Not Treating Negotiations Seriously

Skibitskyi argued that the scale of these preparations shows Moscow is not approaching negotiations in good faith. Instead, he said, Russia appears determined to continue the war while trying to improve its position militarily.

From Kyiv’s perspective, the troop build-up and intensified strikes point less toward compromise and more toward escalation.

Zelensky Says Donbas Would Come at Huge Cost to Russia

President Volodymyr Zelensky has also weighed in on the battle for Donbas, saying Russia would have to sacrifice between 300,000 and one million troops if it wants to fully occupy the region.

He made clear that Ukraine will not pull its forces out of Donbas, signaling that Kyiv intends to resist any such push.

That stance underlines how central the region remains to both sides of the war.

Impact and Consequences

If Ukraine’s intelligence assessment is correct, the coming months could bring a major escalation in both fighting and destruction across southeastern Ukraine.

A renewed Russian offensive combined with intensified missile and drone attacks would likely place even greater pressure on Ukrainian defenses, civilian infrastructure, and already-stretched air defense systems.

It also raises the stakes for Ukraine’s international partners, as calls for more Patriots, ammunition, and military support are likely to grow stronger if Russia moves ahead with a large summer campaign.

What’s next?

The next key development will be whether Russia’s troop buildup turns into a broad ground offensive in southeastern Ukraine in the coming weeks.

Just as important will be whether Ukraine can strengthen air defenses and protect critical infrastructure before the expected campaign intensifies.

Attention will also remain on Donbas, where any major shift on the battlefield could influence both the military situation and the political debate around negotiations.

Summary

Ukrainian military intelligence says Russia is preparing a new offensive in southeastern Ukraine and is aiming to seize the whole Donbas by September.

Officials say Moscow is reinforcing its forces, increasing missile attacks, and targeting energy infrastructure as part of a wider strategy to prepare the battlefield.

Ukraine sees these moves as evidence that Russia is planning to continue the war rather than seriously pursue a negotiated settlement.

Bulleted Takeaways:

• Ukraine says Russia is preparing a new ground offensive in southeastern Ukraine.
• Kyiv believes Moscow wants to capture the entire Donbas by September.
• Ukrainian intelligence says Russia is adding 20,000 troops from strategic reserves.
• Around 680,000 Russian soldiers are said to already be deployed.
• Russia is reportedly producing about 60 Iskander missiles each month.
• Ukrainian officials say missile and drone strikes on cities are intensifying.
• Energy infrastructure damaged over the winter remains highly vulnerable.
• Kyiv believes the air attacks are helping prepare the battlefield for a new offensive.
• Ukraine says these developments show Russia is not taking negotiations seriously.
• Zelensky says Ukraine will not withdraw from Donbas and that Russia would pay a huge cost to fully occupy it.