The 2026 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Grapevine, Texas, brought more than 1,600 conservative activists together over the weekend—and the results of the event’s straw poll are sending clear signals about the 2028 Republican presidential race.
According to the poll, Vice President JD Vance garnered 53 percent of attendee support, securing first place, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio came in second with 35 percent.
The rest of the field barely registered: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. each received just 2 percent, and every other candidate was at or below 1 percent.
A Two-Horse Race Emerges
The distribution of votes underscores a consolidation around two candidates.
Together, Vance and Rubio captured 88 percent of CPAC participants’ support, establishing them as the early front-runners in what appears to be a two-horse race for the nomination.
This represents a shift from the 2025 CPAC straw poll in Oxon Hill, Maryland.
Back then, Vance led with 61 percent, Rubio held just 3 percent, and other figures like Steve Bannon and DeSantis commanded larger shares—12 percent and 7 percent, respectively.
In 2026, their support has dropped significantly, reflecting a realignment among conservative voters attending the conference.
Comparing CPAC to National Polling
National surveys conducted in March 2026 echo CPAC’s focus on Vance, though the margins vary.
One poll by Daily Mail/JL Partners showed Vance leading Republican primary voters with around 50 percent, followed by Rubio at 17 percent.
Another survey placed Vance at 36 percent, Trump Jr. at 19 percent, and Rubio at 9 percent.
Despite differences in numbers, the trends are consistent: Vance remains the clear frontrunner, while Rubio has made substantial gains in recent months, particularly among independent-leaning Republicans in early-primary states.
Factors Behind Rubio’s Surge
Rubio’s jump—from 3 percent to 35 percent among CPAC attendees—reflects growing enthusiasm among grassroots conservatives and rising recognition of his foreign policy experience and Senate record.
Meanwhile, Vance’s slight dip (from 61 percent to 53 percent) may indicate early debates over his appeal to a broader electorate beyond conservative activists.
Impact and Consequences
These poll results set the stage for the 2028 Republican primary.
Vance’s dominance suggests he is positioned as the candidate to beat, while Rubio’s surge may encourage further campaign activity in early-primary states.
Other contenders face an uphill battle; with less than 2 percent of support each, they will need a compelling message or major event to shift momentum.
CPAC attendees, who often influence early fundraising and media narratives, appear increasingly decisive in framing the race as a Vance-Rubio showdown.
For lesser-known or lower-polling candidates, this may create early pressure to consolidate support or risk irrelevance.
What’s Next?
The next phase will include campaign announcements, strategy rollouts, and expanded outreach to primary voters in key states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
Vance and Rubio will likely focus on leveraging CPAC momentum to raise funds and solidify endorsements.
Meanwhile, ongoing investigations and national news stories—such as Vance’s confirmation of inquiries into figures like Ilhan Omar—may play a role in shaping public perception as the race evolves.
Summary
The 2026 CPAC straw poll shows JD Vance leading the early 2028 Republican field with Marco Rubio closing the gap dramatically.
Other contenders, including Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr., barely registered, highlighting a consolidation of support around the two front-runners.
Bulleted Takeaways
- JD Vance leads the 2026 CPAC straw poll with 53 percent; Marco Rubio follows at 35 percent
- Other potential candidates—including Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr.—received 2 percent or less
- CPAC attendees show strong consolidation around two front-runners, indicating a potential early two-horse race
- Compared to 2025, Rubio’s support jumped dramatically from 3 percent to 35 percent
- National polls show Vance maintaining a clear lead, while Rubio gains traction among independent-leaning GOP voters
- Lesser-known candidates face an uphill challenge to gain visibility and momentum
- CPAC results could influence fundraising, endorsements, and media narratives heading into the primary seaso.
