Iran has reportedly retained parts of its ballistic missile and drone manufacturing capabilities despite eight months of US and Israeli airstrikes, raising questions about the extent to which the military campaign has weakened Tehran’s ability to rebuild its weapons stockpiles.
According to a Bloomberg report published on Friday, Western officials familiar with intelligence assessments said Iran still possessed significant quantities of certain weapons and could manufacture additional munitions relatively quickly.
The assessment comes as US President Donald Trump considers the timing of further military action against Iran, with a reported pause in strikes until after the November midterm elections potentially giving Tehran more time to restore its military capabilities.
The findings contrast with public statements from US officials who have described the campaign as having severely damaged Iran’s military infrastructure.
Western Intelligence Points to Surviving Weapons Factories
The Western officials, who spoke anonymously, said parts of Iran’s military-industrial infrastructure had survived extensive attacks targeting its weapons production facilities.
One official assessed that Tehran continued to hold substantial stocks of ballistic missiles and certain anti-ship weapons, while retaining the ability to produce additional munitions.
The report also cited claims that Russia had supplied missiles to Iran, consistent with a separate intelligence assessment from June. Russia’s Defence Ministry did not respond to Bloomberg’s request for comment.
The extent of Iran’s remaining production capacity is difficult to establish independently, particularly given the damage caused by the airstrikes and uncertainty surrounding the condition of facilities that may be underground or otherwise difficult to assess.
White House Rejects Claims That Iran Retains Significant Capabilities
The reported intelligence findings differ sharply from the Trump administration’s public characterisation of the campaign.
Trump previously described Iran’s military as “totally destroyed”, while Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said on 30 September that US operations had eliminated Iran’s military-industrial capacity and its wider defence base.
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly defended the campaign in response to the latest report, arguing that American operations had substantially weakened both Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and its conventional military capabilities.
“First, President Trump obliterated Iran’s nuclear facilities during Operation Midnight Hammer,” Kelly said.
She added that Operation Epic Fury had destroyed the conventional military protection Iran sought to establish around its nuclear programme, including ballistic missiles, production facilities and naval assets.
The competing accounts highlight a continuing disagreement over how much of Iran’s military capability has been eliminated and how quickly the country could restore what it has lost.
Earlier Assessments Suggested Missile Production Had Resumed
The latest report follows earlier assessments indicating that Iran had begun limited efforts to restart ballistic missile production.
A September report cited by The Jerusalem Post, drawing on US and Middle Eastern officials, suggested Tehran had resumed some manufacturing using existing components, including at underground facilities. Production, however, remained below prewar levels.
Former CIA analyst Jim Lamson, now a visiting research fellow at King’s College London, assessed that the US-Israeli campaign had probably caused significant long-term damage to Iran’s prewar missile production infrastructure.
Nevertheless, the destruction of facilities does not necessarily mean that every element of the weapons industry has been eliminated. The ability to reuse existing components, repair equipment or resume limited production could allow Tehran to rebuild some capabilities over time.
Size of Iran’s Remaining Missile Stockpile Remains Uncertain
The precise number of ballistic missiles Iran retains is not publicly established.
Israeli estimates placed Iran’s prewar stockpile at approximately 2,500 ballistic missiles, while Western intelligence assessments in June suggested the country still possessed around three-quarters of its prewar munitions.
Those figures provide an indication of the scale of the arsenal before and during the conflict, but they do not establish how many missiles remain operational today.
Earlier Israeli military assessments suggested that extensive strikes against Iran’s military-industrial facilities could leave the country facing years of reconstruction. Questions have also persisted over its ability to restore launchers and other equipment needed to deploy the weapons.
The distinction between surviving weapons stocks and manufacturing capacity is important: Iran could retain missiles even if production has been substantially reduced, while surviving factories would not necessarily mean it could quickly return to prewar output.
Repairs to Launchers and Underground Facilities Raise Concerns
A separate assessment published in August described Iranian efforts to use periods of reduced fighting to repair launchers, restore access to underground facilities and rebuild missile and drone production.
Analysts cautioned that these activities did not demonstrate that Iran had recovered its full prewar military strength.
However, they suggested that Tehran had opportunities to preserve and restore parts of its weapons infrastructure despite the damage inflicted during the campaign.
For Washington and Israel, the prospect of Iran recovering even some of its missile and drone capabilities remains a concern because those weapons could be used in retaliation if hostilities resume.
Trump’s Reported Pause Could Give Tehran More Time
Trump announced on Thursday that the United States would refrain from attacking Iran before the November midterm elections, following earlier consideration of renewed strikes amid escalating attacks on commercial shipping.
The reported pause could give Tehran additional time to repair damaged facilities, assemble available components and replenish some weapons stocks.
However, the extent of any recovery would depend on the condition of surviving infrastructure, the availability of materials and technical expertise, and whether Iran receives further assistance from abroad.
The Western intelligence assessments suggest that military pressure has not necessarily removed Iran’s ability to regenerate at least part of its weapons arsenal.
Attacks Near the Strait of Hormuz Intensify Maritime Concerns
Iran’s reported remaining military capabilities have become particularly significant amid growing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for international energy shipments.
According to the UK Navy, at least 10 ships were struck during the preceding week as attacks on vessels operating near the strait intensified.
The incidents have heightened concerns about maritime security and the potential disruption of global energy supplies. The United States has also continued its naval blockade of Iranian oil exports, increasing economic pressure on Tehran.
In September, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that it could deploy different weapons and target new locations if Washington launched another offensive.
The warning indicated that Iran intended to retain the ability to respond militarily, despite the damage its forces and infrastructure had sustained.
Iran Could Rely More Heavily on Asymmetric Warfare
Western officials believe Iran may increasingly turn to asymmetric tactics to impose costs on the United States and Israel, particularly as economic pressure mounts.
Such tactics could include attacks on commercial shipping and the use of remaining missile and drone capabilities against targets that are difficult or costly to defend.
Iran’s capacity to sustain these operations would depend on the weapons still available to it, the condition of its military infrastructure and the support it receives from external partners.
The latest intelligence reporting therefore raises a central question for Washington and its allies: whether the air campaign has permanently degraded Iran’s ability to threaten regional security or significantly weakened it without eliminating the means for a gradual recovery.
For now, the available assessments point to substantial damage to Iran’s military-industrial base, alongside continuing uncertainty over the size of its remaining arsenal and the speed at which it could rebuild.
