Conservatives debate strategy as Tory MPs urge Reform UK alliance in Makerfield by-election contest in Greater Manchester

Pressure is mounting within Conservative circles over whether the party should step aside in the upcoming Makerfield by-election, with some senior figures arguing that doing so could improve the chances of a Reform UK win against Labour and Andy Burnham’s political influence in the region.

The debate has exposed deep divisions over strategy, identity, and the long-term direction of the right-wing vote in the UK, especially as Labour continues to maintain strong local momentum in Greater Manchester.

Labour secured Makerfield at the 2024 general election with a majority of 5,399 votes over Reform UK, while the Conservatives finished third with 4,379 votes—figures that have fuelled the argument that splitting the right-wing vote could again hand Labour an easy victory.

Calls for a “Unite the Right” Approach

Some Conservative MPs and senior party voices have openly floated the idea of a tactical arrangement with Reform UK, suggesting a temporary electoral understanding to prevent vote splitting.

Former cabinet minister Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg has been among the most vocal advocates of cooperation, arguing that both parties should consider a quid pro quo arrangement in Makerfield and Aberdeen South.

He has publicly stated that both sides should prioritise “national interest over party rivalry,” claiming that coordination could prevent what he describes as a “very left-wing political outcome.”

Behind closed doors, other Conservative MPs have reportedly echoed similar sentiments, admitting the party has limited chances of winning the seat outright.

Tensions Between Party Leadership and Rebel MPs

Despite growing chatter among backbenchers, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has firmly rejected any suggestion of a formal pact with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

Her position has been clear: every party should compete independently, allowing voters to decide without strategic withdrawals or electoral arrangements.

This stance has created friction with MPs who believe the Conservatives risk further losses if Reform continues to split the anti-Labour vote, particularly in closely contested constituencies like Makerfield.

Reform UK, Restore Britain, and a Crowded Right-Wing Field

The situation has become even more complicated with the emergence of smaller right-leaning groups also entering the race.

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Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain movement has confirmed it will field a candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, a local businesswoman, further fragmenting the conservative-leaning vote in the constituency.

Meanwhile, Reform UK is expected to put forward Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and former soldier who previously contested the seat in 2024, signalling an attempt to build on his grassroots recognition.

Labour’s Position and Andy Burnham’s Influence

Labour, meanwhile, remains in a strong position going into the by-election, with expectations that Andy Burnham’s broader popularity in Greater Manchester will bolster the party’s campaign efforts.

Makerfield has historically leaned Labour, and party insiders believe that even with internal controversies nationally, the seat remains comfortably defendable.

Recent political trends have also shown mixed results for Labour in by-elections, including surprise losses in traditionally safe areas, such as the Gorton and Denton contest where the Greens made unexpected gains.

Impact and Consequences

The biggest consequence of this debate is the continued fragmentation of the right-wing vote, which risks locking Labour into an easier path to victory in Makerfield.

If Conservatives and Reform UK both stand candidates, analysts say the split could mathematically guarantee Labour success even without increasing its vote share.

Politically, the disagreement also highlights a deeper identity crisis within the Conservative Party—whether it should remain strictly independent or adopt tactical cooperation to counter Labour dominance.

For Reform UK, the situation is both an opportunity and a risk: increased visibility in contests like Makerfield could strengthen its profile, but splitting votes may also reduce its chances of converting support into actual seats.

What’s Next?

In the coming days, both the Conservatives and Reform UK are expected to confirm their candidates, officially launching what is shaping up to be a highly competitive and politically symbolic by-election campaign.

Campaign strategies will likely become clearer once nominations close, especially regarding whether any informal coordination or last-minute withdrawals occur—though current leadership positions suggest that is unlikely.

Labour is expected to intensify its ground campaign early, aiming to consolidate support before the opposition parties fully settle their internal disputes.

The outcome in Makerfield will be closely watched not just locally, but nationally, as a test of whether the British right can coordinate—or whether division will continue to define its electoral performance.

Summary

The Makerfield by-election has triggered a major internal dispute within the Conservative Party over whether it should stand aside to help Reform UK challenge Labour.

While some senior figures support a tactical pact to prevent vote splitting, party leadership under Kemi Badenoch has rejected any cooperation.

With multiple right-wing candidates expected to run, Labour remains well positioned, and the contest is becoming a broader symbol of division within Britain’s right-wing politics.

Bulleted Takeaways

• Conservatives are under pressure to consider stepping aside in Makerfield to avoid splitting the right-wing vote.
• Labour won the seat in 2024 with a 5,399 majority over Reform UK.
• Senior Tory voices, including Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, have suggested cooperation with Reform UK.
• Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has ruled out any electoral deal with Reform UK.
• Reform UK and Conservatives are both expected to field candidates, along with smaller right-wing parties.
• Restore Britain has entered the race, adding further competition on the right.
• Labour remains strong locally, with Andy Burnham’s influence seen as a factor.
• The by-election is viewed as a key test of right-wing unity and electoral strategy in the UK.