Central Asian economies are trading significantly more with one another, but the latest figures suggest that the region has yet to achieve a major structural shift away from its dependence on external markets.
Between 2020 and 2025, intra-regional trade increased by 82%, rising from $6.6 billion to $11.9 billion. Despite that strong expansion, trade between Central Asian neighbours continued to account for only around 5% of the region’s overall global trade.
That means the region is becoming more interconnected without fundamentally changing where its economic dependence lies. China, Russia, the European Union and Turkey remain the dominant forces shaping Central Asia’s external commerce.
Kazakhstan Emerges as the Region’s Leading Supplier
Kazakhstan remains the strongest exporter within the Central Asian trading system.
In 2025, the country accounted for 55.6% of intra-regional exports, with its shipments to neighbouring countries almost doubling to $6.6 billion.
The most important trade relationship continues to be between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Their combined trade reached $4.9 billion in 2025, representing approximately 41% of all trade conducted within Central Asia.
However, the relationship remains heavily weighted in Kazakhstan’s favour. Kazakhstan exported goods worth about $3.5 billion to Uzbekistan, while imports from its southern neighbour stood at approximately $1.3 billion.
Uzbekistan Becomes a Major Regional Market
Uzbekistan’s position illustrates the changing dynamics of Central Asian commerce.
The country’s regional exports increased by 44% between 2020 and 2025, reaching $2.7 billion. Yet its share of intra-regional exports fell from 28.5% to 22.6% over the same period.
The reason is not necessarily declining exports, but the faster expansion of neighbouring economies.
At the same time, Uzbekistan’s imports from Central Asian countries surged by 86% to $5 billion. That produced a regional trade deficit of roughly $2.3 billion.
The figures increasingly position Uzbekistan as one of the region’s principal consumer markets, absorbing products from neighbouring economies even as its own exports fail to keep pace.
Turkmenistan Turns Towards Its Neighbours
Turkmenistan recorded one of the most striking changes in its regional trade orientation.
Its exports to other Central Asian countries increased 2.8 times over the five-year period, reaching $1.3 billion in 2025.
Uzbekistan was by far the largest destination, accounting for 78.2% of Turkmenistan’s regional exports.
The development points to a significant shift in Ashgabat’s commercial focus, with neighbouring markets becoming increasingly important for the country’s export strategy.
Kyrgyzstan Remains Heavily Dependent on Regional Trade
Kyrgyzstan has also become increasingly reliant on its Central Asian neighbours.
Intra-regional trade represented 18.8% of the country’s total trade turnover, one of the highest proportions in the region.
However, the country’s growing dependence is reflected in its trade deficit. Imports from neighbouring Central Asian states jumped from $729 million to $2.1 billion, leaving Kyrgyzstan with a regional deficit of approximately $1.2 billion.
While Kyrgyz exports have also expanded, imports have grown considerably faster.
A Region Divided Between Exporters and Importers
The latest figures reveal a relatively clear division within Central Asia.
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have emerged as the principal net exporters, supported by their supplies of energy, raw materials and agricultural products.
Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, meanwhile, remain net importers from their neighbours, relying increasingly on regional suppliers to satisfy domestic demand.
This imbalance is not necessarily a sign of failure. Greater trade between neighbouring economies can strengthen economic links and create new markets, even when the flows are uneven.
Trade Networks Are Becoming More Diverse
The region’s commercial relationships are also becoming less dependent on a handful of bilateral routes.
Kazakhstan is expanding its trade with Kyrgyzstan, while Uzbekistan is strengthening economic links with both Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.
Such developments suggest that Central Asian countries are gradually building a wider network of economic relationships rather than relying exclusively on their largest trading partners.
More Trade Does Not Yet Mean Deeper Integration
The overall picture is therefore one of gradual integration rather than a dramatic transformation.
Central Asian countries are clearly trading more with each other, but intra-regional commerce remains only a small fraction of their combined global trade.
The region has moved closer to becoming an interconnected economic network, yet it has not developed the kind of deep industrial integration that could substantially reduce its reliance on external markets.
The next challenge will be moving beyond the exchange of commodities, food and raw materials towards greater manufacturing cooperation, regional supply chains and higher-value production.
For now, Central Asia is more economically connected than it was five years ago—but its broader economic gravity still lies firmly outside the region.
