Bitcoin continues to trade under important long-term valuation benchmarks, but market analysts argue that the cryptocurrency’s broader growth pattern remains intact.
Recent research suggests that while the asset is currently under pressure, its behavior still closely resembles previous market cycles.
According to analysts tracking historical trends, Bitcoin’s current price action reflects a temporary period of weakness rather than a breakdown of its long-established trajectory.
Analysts Point to Two Major Time Cycles
Market commentator David Eng recently highlighted what he described as Bitcoin’s tendency to follow two separate timing frameworks.
One focuses on shorter-term market movements, while the other captures the asset’s long-term adoption trend.
The first framework is based on a 400-day simple moving average, a metric that has historically provided support during bullish phases.
Notably, Bitcoin has managed to avoid closing below this level on a daily basis throughout both the current and previous market cycles.
The second framework examines a much longer four-year trend, filtering out short-term volatility to reveal a broader pattern tied to adoption and market maturation.
Four-Year Trend Suggests Bitcoin Is Undervalued
Eng argues that Bitcoin regularly moves above and below its long-term growth trend, often stretching away from it during periods of market enthusiasm before eventually reverting closer to the underlying adoption curve.
Based on this model, the analyst estimates Bitcoin’s fair value at approximately $76,400.
With prices trading below that level, he believes the cryptocurrency is currently undervalued by roughly 20%.
The analysis also references Bitcoin’s Power Law model, which places the asset in significantly higher territory, approaching $135,000.
Despite current market weakness, Eng maintains that Bitcoin’s structure remains healthy.
Rather than viewing the decline as a sign of failure, he described the market as being “compressed” beneath its long-term adoption trend.
Bear Market May Not Be Over Yet
While some analysts see signs of undervaluation, others caution that Bitcoin could face additional downside before establishing a new upward trend.
Historical comparisons indicate that the current bear market may still have several months remaining.
Recent estimates suggest the downturn is approximately 71% complete, implying that the final stages of the correction may still lie ahead.
This outlook has fueled debate among traders over whether Bitcoin is nearing a bottom or preparing for another leg lower.
Key Technical Level Draws Attention
Analyst Rekt Capital has focused much of his recent commentary on Bitcoin’s relationship with its 50-month exponential moving average, a widely watched long-term indicator currently positioned near $63,900.
According to his assessment, a monthly close around $62,000 would confirm a breakdown below that support level.
Such a development could alter the market’s structure and potentially turn the moving average into resistance during any short-term recovery.
He noted that a positive performance in July could temporarily strengthen sentiment, but warned that renewed weakness later in the summer could reverse those gains.
August Seen as Potential Turning Point
Looking ahead, some market observers believe August could prove decisive for Bitcoin’s next major move.
If bullish momentum fails to hold after a potential July rebound, the market could resume its downward trend and extend the current correction.
Despite these risks, long-term analysts continue to argue that Bitcoin’s broader adoption story remains intact.
While short-term volatility persists, many believe the cryptocurrency is still following the cyclical patterns that have characterized its market history for more than a decade.
