A newly disclosed handwritten document attributed to Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has revealed that he believed Israel could respond to a large-scale Hamas assault with its most devastating military capabilities, including the possible use of nuclear weapons against Gaza.
The document, dated August 24, 2022, was made public on Monday by the Amit Terrorism and Intelligence Research Institute.
It is the latest in a series of internal Hamas records recovered by the Israel Defense Forces during military operations in Gaza and later released for public examination.
Sinwar Anticipated an Overwhelming Israeli Response
According to the document, Sinwar expected that any major Hamas offensive would inevitably provoke a massive Israeli military retaliation.
While he believed an initial surprise attack could temporarily disrupt Israel’s response, he warned that the country would eventually mobilize its full military capabilities.
In his handwritten notes, Sinwar stated that Israel would not hesitate to deploy every available weapon if it believed its security was under severe threat.
He even suggested that nuclear weapons could be considered among Israel’s possible options, although he did not present evidence that such a scenario was likely.
The document portrays the conflict as an existential struggle, describing it as a battle in which survival would depend on perseverance despite potentially catastrophic consequences.
Surprise Was Viewed as the Key to Success
Another document written on the same day, previously released by Israeli researchers, complements the latest findings by emphasizing the importance of speed and surprise.
Sinwar argued that Hamas would have only a limited window—between six and ten hours—to exploit the element of surprise before Israel could organize an effective counteroffensive.
During that period, he believed Hamas fighters needed to prevent Israeli forces from quickly regaining control.
He also proposed organizing civilian demonstrations aimed at symbolically returning to former Palestinian villages, presenting the move as part of a broader psychological and political campaign accompanying the military assault.
Documents Reveal the Scale of Hamas’s Early Ambitions
The newly released material also offers fresh insight into Hamas’s early operational planning.
One version of the strategy envisioned deploying as many as 10,000 fighters across more than 200 Israeli communities and military positions.
However, those ambitions were significantly reduced before the October 7, 2023, attack.
Israeli assessments indicate that the actual assault involved roughly 2,000 Hamas militants in the first wave, followed by a similar number in a second wave.
Authorities say an additional group of around 1,600 largely untrained Gazans entered Israel afterward, bringing the total number of participants to approximately 5,600.
Researchers Say the Records Illustrate a Long-Term Deception Campaign
The latest disclosure follows earlier releases of internal Hamas documents that Israeli officials say were recovered during operations in Gaza.
In June, the Amit Terrorism and Intelligence Research Institute, using intelligence supplied by the Israel Defense Forces, shared several confidential Hamas documents with The Jerusalem Post.
Researchers said the collection illustrated how Hamas gradually developed a long-term strategy designed to convince Israel that it was not preparing for a large-scale confrontation.
According to the institute’s analysis, the documents trace the evolution of Hamas planning between 2022 and 2023, revealing deliberate efforts to lower Israeli threat perceptions while secretly preparing for the October 7 attack.
A Broader Picture of Hamas’s Internal Planning
Among the previously released materials was a document dated September 13, 2022, titled “Building a Strategic Deception Plan Which Will Be the Basis for a Surprise Attack by Hamas on Israel.”
Researchers say the growing collection of recovered documents provides one of the clearest windows yet into Hamas’s internal decision-making before the October 7 assault.
While many aspects of the group’s deception strategy had already been reported, the handwritten records add new details about the organization’s military planning, strategic calculations and expectations regarding Israel’s response.
