In a rare electoral outcome shaped by California’s primary system, two Republican incumbents—Ken Calvert and Young Kim—are projected to advance to the general election in California’s 40th Congressional District, effectively guaranteeing a Republican-held seat in November.
The projection, based on data from Decision Desk HQ after several days of ballot counting, shows the race narrowing into an all-Republican runoff, leaving Democratic contenders unable to reach the top-two cutoff.
Vote Count Shows GOP Dominance as Democrats Trail Behind
With approximately 73% of votes tallied, Calvert leads the field with about 35.7% of the vote, translating to 57,761 ballots.
Kim follows in second place with 21.1%, or 34,189 votes.
The leading Democratic candidate, Esther Kim-Varet, trails in third with 16.2% (26,215 votes), while fellow Democrat Lisa Ramirez sits further behind at roughly 13.5%.
Other Democratic candidates also remained outside contention as the count progressed, reinforcing the widening gap that ultimately shaped the final two positions.
California’s Top-Two System Shapes Unusual Election Outcome
The result is a direct product of California’s top-two primary system, in which all candidates compete on a single ballot regardless of party affiliation.
Only the two highest vote-getters advance to the general election—meaning that, in this case, both advancing candidates belong to the Republican Party, leaving Democrats without representation on the November ballot.
This structure has repeatedly produced intra-party general elections in heavily skewed districts, but the 40th District outcome stands out due to its congressional significance and partisan implications.
Redistricting Rewrote the Political Map of the 40th District
The race was also shaped by California’s recent redistricting changes under Proposition 50, approved in 2025, which significantly reshaped several congressional boundaries across the state.
The newly configured 40th District merges portions of Calvert’s former 41st District with Kim’s previous 40th District, stretching across parts of Orange and Riverside counties.
Communities within the new district include areas such as Rancho Santa Margarita, Mission Viejo, Villa Park, Menifee, and Murrieta, creating a geographically diverse and politically competitive landscape.
Incumbents Forced Into Direct GOP Showdown
The redrawn map placed two established Republican figures on a collision course.
Ken Calvert, a long-serving lawmaker from Corona with decades in Congress, faced off against Young Kim, who has represented the region since 2021.
Both incumbents were effectively forced to compete for survival under the new district boundaries, turning the primary into a high-stakes internal party contest rather than a traditional partisan battle.
November Election Now a Guaranteed GOP Hold
With both advancing candidates belonging to the same party, the November general election will now feature a Republican-versus-Republican matchup—ensuring the seat remains under GOP control regardless of the outcome.
Election analysts note that the district carries a Cook Political Report rating of R+6, indicating a Republican lean based on historical voting patterns.
While Democrats had hoped the newly drawn district might offer a competitive opening, the primary results have effectively removed the seat from the party’s list of potential gains in the upcoming general election.
