Andy Burnham has emerged from Labour’s conference with a significant polling boost, as fresh figures show the party extending its lead over Reform UK and reigniting speculation about an early general election.
Labour has climbed two points to 30 per cent in the latest Opinium survey, its strongest result with the pollster since November 2024.
Reform UK is now on 25 per cent after gaining one point, while the Conservatives remain stuck on 17 per cent. The Greens are on 11 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 9 per cent.
The five-point Labour advantage represents a notable improvement from Opinium’s previous survey, when Burnham’s party was four points ahead of Reform.
Poll Gives Burnham Fresh Political Momentum
The figures provide an early indication that Burnham’s first Labour conference as prime minister has strengthened the government‘s position with voters.
His personal ratings have also improved. Burnham remains the only major party leader recorded with a positive net approval rating, rising one point to plus eight.
Kemi Badenoch is on minus one, while Reform leader Nigel Farage is considerably further behind on minus 22.
The polling boost comes after Burnham used his conference speech in Liverpool to set out an ambitious programme covering social care, pensions, electoral reform and Britain’s future relationship with the European Union.
Snap Election Talk Refuses to Go Away
The improved figures have inevitably added fuel to speculation that Burnham could consider going to the country earlier than planned.
Burnham has repeatedly rejected the idea of a snap election and previously described the prospect as “dead”. Yet his conference address included several policies that would require a fresh mandate to implement after an election.
Among his proposals was a National Care Service, alongside changes to the state pension system and a new approach to Britain’s relationship with the EU.
Despite the speculation, Burnham has insisted that the government is focused on delivering its programme rather than preparing for an early ballot.
Electoral Projection Points to Labour Majority
The scale of Labour’s poll lead has also prompted attention from electoral modelling.
Electoral Calculus projections based on the reported voting figures suggest Labour could win around 342 seats, compared with 155 for Reform UK and just 55 for the Conservatives.
Such projections should not be treated as a forecast of the eventual election result, however. Britain’s constituency map means relatively small changes in support can produce significant differences in the number of parliamentary seats won.
The fragmentation of the vote also makes the current political landscape particularly difficult to predict.
Burnham’s Social Care Plan Wins Public Support
One of the centrepieces of Burnham’s conference programme was his proposal for a National Care Service modelled in part on the NHS.
Opinium found considerable public support for the idea, with 48 per cent backing a service that would provide care free at the point of use and be funded through general taxation. Just 15 per cent opposed the proposal.
Support extended beyond Labour’s traditional base, with even Reform voters narrowly backing the idea overall.
Burnham has linked the plan to changes to the pensions triple lock, arguing that reforming the system would help provide the resources needed to create a universal care service.
Pension Plan Could Become a Political Battleground
The proposal to alter the triple lock is likely to be more politically difficult.
Opinium found that 40 per cent supported Burnham’s proposed changes, compared with 23 per cent who opposed them.
Among voters aged over 65, however, the balance was reversed, with 42 per cent opposing the changes and 31 per cent supporting them.
The issue therefore presents Burnham with a potentially significant challenge as he attempts to sell the idea of redirecting money from pension increases towards a wider system of publicly funded social care.
Brexit Gives Labour Another Political Opening
Burnham’s position on Britain’s relationship with the EU also appears to have struck a chord with voters.
His conference proposal was to keep Britain’s options open while pursuing a closer, long-term relationship with Brussels.
Opinium found that 54 per cent believed this approach was the right one, compared with 25 per cent who disagreed.
The wider public remains considerably more negative about Brexit itself, with 46 per cent saying leaving the EU had done much more harm than good. Only 13 per cent believed it had done much more good than harm.
Badenoch Faces Pressure to Change the Narrative
The timing of the poll puts added pressure on Badenoch as she begins the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham.
The Conservative leader has urged her party to be prepared for a possible general election, including speculation about a potential May ballot.
Yet the latest Opinium figures underline the scale of the challenge facing the Conservatives, who remain on 17 per cent in the survey.
Other polling companies have produced more encouraging numbers for the Tories, meaning Badenoch will be hoping to use her conference platform to close the gap and change the political conversation.
Opinium Challenges Badenoch to Match Burnham
James Crouch, Opinium’s head of policy and public affairs, said Burnham had succeeded in dominating the political agenda through his conference appearance and major policy announcements.
The polling expert suggested the next test would be whether Badenoch could generate a comparable response during the Conservative conference.
For Burnham, the immediate challenge is to turn a conference bounce into lasting support.
The latest numbers give Labour its strongest position in an Opinium poll since 2024, but with the next general election not necessarily imminent, there is still considerable time for public opinion to shift.
For now, however, the political momentum is clearly with Burnham — and the renewed talk of a snap election shows just how quickly the conference season has changed the Westminster landscape.
