The hurricane Ian is churning past Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, where it is expected to generate 111 mph gusts.
This would make Ian a Category 3 hurricane by the time it approaches the Florida Gulf Coast on Wednesday, classifying it as a major storm. If it hits Tampa Bay directly, as analysts predict, it will be the first significant hurricane to do so in a century.
United States National Hurricane Center
Rick Davis, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Tampa office, told CNN: “We tell folks, even if they are lifelong Floridians like myself, that this is something we have never seen in our lifetimes.” Therefore, it is imperative that we take it seriously.
Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center advised Floridians to complete their preparations. The residents of the Tampa region should have completed all preparations by Tuesday evening.
The last Category 3 storm to hit Tampa caused extensive damage.
On September 26, 2022, satellite imagery shows Hurricane Ian approaching Florida.
NOAA’s GOES-East mission
The last major hurricane to directly affect the Tampa Bay region was in 1921, before the current system of storm naming was implemented. It was simply known as the “Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1921.” It also predated current emergency measures, so the storm left the entire county without electricity, crushed ships against the piers, swept away roads and train tracks, and killed eight people.
The NWS estimates that the storm was a Category 3 and that it caused a storm surge of 11 feet in downtown Tampa.
Ian’s effects could also be devastating. Category 3 winds can break and uproot trees, rip apart roofs, and knock out access to electricity and water for days or weeks.
This does not even account for the storm surge, the wall of water a hurricane pushes onto land, which is frequently more destructive and lethal than the wind. It is predicted that Hurricane Ian will push 5 to 10 feet of water into Tampa Bay.
United States National Hurricane Center
As Ian arrives in Florida, precipitation is predicted to produce flash floods across the state.
As ocean temperatures rise, hurricanes grow in intensity and velocity. Warm water adds more moisture to a cyclone and strengthens its winds. This is why hurricanes like Ian can intensify so rapidly over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters. As climate change elevates ocean temperatures, experts anticipate an increase in this type of rapid intensification, as well as a trend toward storms that are stronger, wetter, and more destructive.
