Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), is showing early signs of a possible rally, driven by movements among the largest holders, often called whales.
For the first time since early February, the richest ETH wallets—those holding more than 100,000 tokens—have returned to profitability, sparking optimism in the crypto community.
Whales Move Back Into Profit
Data from CryptoQuant reveals that these top ETH whales are no longer sitting on aggregate paper losses.
Known as the unrealized profit ratio flipping above zero, this metric has historically been a strong signal for upward price momentum.
On-chain analyst CW noted that in past cycles, when whales regained profitability, ETH gained roughly 25% over the next three months and around 50% within six months, sometimes soaring 300% over a year.
The reasoning is simple: once whales are profitable, they feel less pressure to sell defensively.
This shift can boost market confidence and encourage other traders to buy, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of upward price action.
Potential Price Targets
If history repeats itself, ETH could climb above $2,750 by June and possibly exceed $3,200 by September.
However, the metric is not infallible—back in 2018, a similar flip led to a short-term 17.5% drop, eventually culminating in a nearly 70% decline.
Glassnode data adds another layer to the bullish case.
ETH has rebounded from its lowest MVRV deviation band, a pattern previously seen in Q2 2022 and Q2 2025, which marked recoveries from undervalued levels.
Currently, ETH trades below its realized price of $2,353, the first crucial level to reclaim.
Breaching that could open the door to the -0.5 sigma band near $2,640.
Technical Perspective Supports Recovery
From a technical standpoint, ETH recently broke above an ascending triangle pattern.
Pullbacks toward the previous resistance trendline are typical after such breakouts and are often interpreted as retests to confirm support.
If ETH holds this trendline, it could aim for the triangle’s measured upside target around $2,625 or higher, aligning with the on-chain recovery zone suggested by Glassnode’s MVRV bands.
A failed retest, however, could undermine the structure and expose ETH to support levels near $1,950-$2,000.
Impact and Consequences
The renewed profitability among ETH whales could have multiple implications:
- Market Confidence: A profitable whale cohort often signals a bottoming out of ETH, encouraging retail investors to enter the market.
- Reduced Selling Pressure: Profitable whales are less likely to liquidate holdings, potentially stabilizing prices.
- Price Rally: Historical patterns suggest strong upside potential over the coming months if the metrics hold.
- Volatility Risk: Despite bullish signals, past instances show ETH can still experience sharp retracements, making careful risk management essential.
What’s Next
Traders will be watching several key indicators in the coming months:
- Whether ETH can reclaim and hold its realized price at $2,353.
- If technical retests of the triangle’s trendline confirm support.
- The broader crypto market sentiment and macroeconomic factors that may influence ETH’s trajectory.
If these align, ETH could resume its recovery toward the $2,750–$3,200 range by the end of Q2 and Q3 2026.
Summary
Ether is showing early signs of a potential uptrend as its largest holders return to profitability.
On-chain metrics, technical patterns, and historical cycles suggest a possible rally, though caution is warranted given the inherent volatility of crypto markets.
Bulleted Takeaways
- Ethereum whales (100K+ ETH) are profitable for the first time since February, signaling a potential market bottom.
- Historical patterns show ETH gained 25% in three months and 50% in six months after similar whale flips.
- ETH could target $2,750 by June and $3,200 by September if patterns hold.
- Glassnode data shows ETH rebounding from its lowest MVRV deviation band, indicating undervaluation.
- Technical breakout above an ascending triangle supports bullish momentum but requires retest confirmation.
- Failed retests could send ETH back toward $1,950–$2,000.
- Market confidence and reduced whale selling pressure may fuel further price gains.
- Crypto markets remain volatile, and all investment carries risk; historical patterns are not guaranteed to repeat.
