UK Sees Sharp Increase in Channel Arrivals as Migrants Take Advantage of Clear Skies and Calm Seas to Reach Dover

UK Sees Sharp Increase in Channel Arrivals as Migrants Take Advantage of Clear Skies and Calm Seas to Reach Dover

After almost a month of quiet, the English Channel saw a sudden spike in migrant crossings today, with over 500 people making the dangerous journey from France to the UK.

By midday, nine boats had set off, and Border Force patrol vessel Hurricane had already brought at least 160 asylum seekers ashore at Dover.

This abrupt increase ends a 28-day lull, the longest pause in arrivals since October 2018, when crossings stopped for 48 days.

Traditionally, December sees fewer attempts due to freezing temperatures and long nights, but smugglers clearly saw an opportunity in today’s clear skies and calm seas.

Border Force Scrambles to Respond

The UK Border Force reacted swiftly, deploying five vessels – Hurricane, Ranger, Typhoon, and Volunteer – to intercept the boats.

They received backup from the coastguard and French Search and Rescue (SAR) teams.

Despite these efforts, footage from the night shows the sheer desperation of the migrants: a “super-dinghy” carrying over 100 people left northern France, with some even swimming to reach the vessel.

Videos shared on TikTok captured the chaotic scene.

Migrants were tightly packed, few wearing lifejackets, and the footage showed the disorder as people scrambled to board.

In one clip, a migrant was seen tossing personal belongings into the water, possibly documents, before the boat departed.

The post carried the caption: “It’s done, thank God,” signaling the first successful crossing in 28 days.

Smugglers Take Advantage of Weather

Sources say smugglers timed their operation to exploit favorable conditions, waiting for clear skies and calm waters. “Smugglers are celebrating.

They wait for the right weather and then fully exploit it,” one insider explained.

Super-dinghies have become more common, and the scenes are described as utter chaos, with people desperate to reach the UK even risking swimming alongside the boats.

Poor weather has been a major factor keeping crossings low over the past month, making the Channel even more dangerous for those attempting the journey.

Record Numbers on Track for 2025

This year is shaping up to be one of the busiest since record-keeping began in 2018.

The all-time high remains 45,774 arrivals in 2022.

As of December 13, 2025, 39,292 migrants had already reached the UK, more than any other year except 2022.

To break the record, 6,483 more arrivals would need to occur before the end of the month, making the next few weeks critical in determining whether 2025 will set a new high.

The sudden surge raises questions about what comes next for Border Force operations and how authorities will respond if smugglers continue to exploit favorable weather windows.

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