U.S. population expected to decline after 2080; low fertility a cause, Census Bureau says

“Some of these, like the increases in mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, are expected to be short-term,” Johnson said, “while others, including the declines in fertility that have persisted for decades, are likely to continue into the future.”

Johnson said incorporating more data on births, deaths, and immigration into their analysis “resulted in a slower pace of population growth through 2060 than was previously projected” by the bureau. 

The bureau pointed out that “immigration is projected to become the largest contributor to population growth.”

“Reduced fertility and an aging population result in natural decrease — an excess of deaths relative to births — in all projection scenarios,” the bureau said.

Declines in fertility will further drive an increase in population age throughout the country, the press release said. The drop in fertility is “projected to shift the age structure of the population so that there will be more adults age 65 or older compared to children under age 18.”

Immigration, the bureau said, could play a decisive role in ultimate population numbers. 

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