The United States’ changing approach to international trade, finance and diplomacy has renewed debate about the future role of the US dollar in the global economy.
Tariffs, geopolitical conflicts and the use of international financial infrastructure as a policy tool have contributed to tensions between Washington and some of its trading partners and allies. Those developments have raised a broader question for investors: if confidence in the dollar’s international role weakens, which currencies could attract some of the resulting demand?
China is the most obvious candidate frequently discussed in this context. But another possibility is emerging in the form of currencies issued by smaller, financially open countries with strong institutions and established legal systems.
Why smaller economies could attract international investors
The argument is not necessarily that the dollar is about to lose its position as the world’s leading reserve currency.
Instead, the case is that international investors could gradually diversify into currencies that offer several of the characteristics that have historically supported the dollar’s global role.
These include open capital markets, floating exchange rates, liquid financial markets, reliable central banks and strong legal institutions.
Countries that can provide those features without the geopolitical risks associated with a major global power could potentially become more attractive to international investors seeking additional currency exposure.
Liquidity has long been a challenge for smaller currencies
One of the biggest obstacles facing smaller currencies is their limited international use.
Large institutional investors generally prefer currencies with extensive trading networks, significant liquidity and widespread use in international commerce. These advantages create powerful network effects that are difficult for smaller economies to replicate.
Technological developments, however, could begin to reduce some of those barriers.
Stablecoins, central bank digital currencies and other blockchain-based financial technologies could make it easier to hold, combine and transfer exposure to several smaller currencies.
Digital finance could change how currencies are bundled
Faster settlement and digital financial infrastructure could allow investors to construct baskets of smaller currencies rather than relying exclusively on one dominant reserve currency.
Such arrangements could potentially reduce concerns over liquidity and settlement when conducting international transactions.
The development of these technologies does not guarantee that smaller currencies will gain a greater international role, but it could make them easier for global investors to access and use.
Political neutrality could become an advantage
Another argument centres on the relationship between currencies and geopolitical power.
The United States has used access to parts of the international financial system as an instrument of foreign policy, including measures affecting countries such as Russia.
Supporters of the smaller-currency thesis argue that nations without comparable geopolitical reach may offer international users greater certainty that their financial infrastructure will not be subject to the same type of political pressure.
For investors and businesses operating across borders, that perceived neutrality could become an important consideration.
Australia and Canada offer early examples
The Australian and Canadian dollars are already examples of smaller-country currencies with relatively developed financial systems and strong institutional frameworks.
The share of global foreign-exchange reserves allocated to these currencies has increased over the past decade, according to the argument presented in the original analysis. Their use in international cross-border transactions has also expanded, although both remain a relatively small part of global currency activity.
Their experience suggests that investors can increase exposure to smaller currencies when those currencies combine open markets with institutional stability.
Western debt adds another layer to the debate
The discussion is also taking place against concerns about high public debt across the United States and other advanced Western economies.
Rising government debt and higher long-term bond yields have contributed to broader questions about the fiscal outlook in some developed economies.
For international investors, however, the appeal of a currency is not determined by government finances alone. Market depth, convertibility, exchange-rate flexibility, central-bank credibility and the rule of law can all influence demand.
The dollar’s dominance is not necessarily ending
The argument for greater demand for smaller currencies should not be confused with a prediction that the US dollar will soon cease to be the world’s primary reserve currency.
The dollar continues to benefit from its enormous network of users, deep financial markets and established role in global trade and finance.
Instead, the potential shift could involve gradual diversification, with investors adding exposure to currencies from smaller but well-governed economies.
A possible opening for smaller, well-governed economies
If international investors become increasingly concerned about geopolitical fragmentation while continuing to demand currencies supported by open markets and strong institutions, smaller economies could have an opportunity to expand their role in global finance.
For such countries, the challenge will be maintaining the characteristics that make their currencies attractive: credible institutions, accessible capital markets, liquid financial systems and predictable legal frameworks.
Whether that ultimately produces a meaningful change in the international monetary system remains uncertain. But the argument points to a broader possibility: the next stage of currency diversification may not be dominated exclusively by another major power, but could also create opportunities for smaller economies with stable institutions.
