South African motorists could see petrol prices fall slightly and diesel prices decrease by more than R1.70 per litre in November 2026 following temporary fuel levy reductions announced by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana.
The latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) figures indicate that all four main fuel grades could record price decreases, although the projections remain subject to changes in international oil prices, the rand-dollar exchange rate and other fuel pricing factors.
Godongwana announced the temporary levy reductions during his Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) speech on Wednesday as part of a R10 billion relief package aimed at easing financial pressure on consumers.
CEF Data Shows Petrol and Diesel Remain Under-Recovered
Data published by the CEF on Thursday, 22 October, showed that petrol and diesel prices remained significantly under-recovered.
Petrol 93 recorded an under-recovery of R1.38 per litre, while petrol 95 stood at R1.27 per litre.
Diesel 0.05% was under-recovered by R1.29 per litre, while diesel 0.005% recorded an under-recovery of R1.24 per litre.
These figures indicate a difference between current regulated fuel prices and the levels suggested by the underlying pricing factors. Without intervention or a change in market conditions, the under-recoveries could place upward pressure on prices.
However, the temporary fuel levy reductions have altered the outlook for November.
November Fuel Levy Reductions Target Petrol and Diesel Costs
Under the announced measures, the general fuel levy will be reduced by R1.50 per litre for petrol and R3 per litre for diesel during November.
Based on the latest CEF snapshot and the planned relief measures, the indicative inland fuel prices suggest modest reductions for petrol and substantially larger decreases for diesel.
The projected prices are as follows:
| Fuel type | October price | November projection | Potential change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | R29.88 | R29.76 | -12 cents/litre |
| Petrol 95 | R30.25 | R30.02 | -23 cents/litre |
| Diesel 0.05% | R31.95 | R30.24 | -R1.71/litre |
| Diesel 0.005% | R33.29 | R31.53 | -R1.76/litre |
The figures suggest that diesel motorists could benefit from reductions of R1.71 and R1.76 per litre, depending on the grade used. Petrol motorists could see smaller decreases of 12 cents and 23 cents per litre.
These estimates are not final regulated prices, and the eventual adjustments will depend on market movements during the remainder of October.
Rising International Oil Prices Could Reduce the Savings
The projected decreases remain vulnerable to changes in international oil prices and currency movements.
Brent crude oil climbed to around $115 per barrel during the week amid renewed tensions in the Middle East. At the time of the report, the oil price was quoted at $113.18 per barrel.
The rand was trading at approximately R16.57 against the US dollar, after being around R16.50 earlier in the week.
Higher oil prices increase the cost of petroleum products, while a weaker rand makes imported fuel more expensive in local currency. Either development could reduce the expected savings or potentially reverse the projected decreases.
Changes to the slate levy, which helps account for differences between regulated fuel prices and underlying costs, could also affect the final adjustments.
Final Fuel Prices Expected on 3 November
The new fuel prices are scheduled to take effect at midnight on Tuesday, 3 November 2026.
Until then, the projections remain indicative rather than confirmed. The final outcome will depend on international petroleum product prices, the rand-dollar exchange rate and other components of South Africa’s fuel pricing system.
Motorists will therefore have to wait for the official announcement to determine whether the anticipated petrol and diesel reductions will be implemented in full.
