In the world of politics, the phrase ‘the only poll that counts is a general election’ is a common refrain, with politicians often evading questions until the public delivers their collective verdict.
The gaps between elections can feel like a period of continuous questioning, waiting for the British public to make their judgment.
Last night’s extraordinary by-elections shed light on several major questions that will be pivotal in the coming year.
Labour’s Surprising Triumph in True-Blue Strongholds
Labour’s resounding victory in two traditionally Conservative strongholds, Mid Beds and Tamworth, has left the political landscape significantly altered.
The remarkable 20-point plus swing that Keir Starmer secured has the potential to establish him as the dominant force in a one-party state.
However, the reality is more complex, as it’s improbable that Starmer can reduce the Tories to a mere 20 MPs.
A Ray of Hope for Rishi Sunak
While Rishi Sunak’s chances of reaching Downing Street in 2025 may seem bleak, there is still a glimmer of hope.
Some argue that the low turnouts in both by-elections suggest that many Conservative supporters stayed home, rather than actively switching their support to Labour.
Optimists contend that there is ‘no enthusiasm’ for Keir Starmer among voters, supported to some extent by his modest personal ratings.
Competence vs. Right-Wing Policies
The debate within the Conservative party is poised to intensify. While some argue for tax cuts, action on immigration, and a shift away from Net Zero goals, others stress the importance of competence in governance.
The pressure on Sunak to address these concerns will grow, and his response may impact his leadership prospects.
Challenges Ahead for Keir Starmer
Despite his electoral success, Keir Starmer’s path to a parliamentary majority is challenging. The continued strength of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in Scotland poses a significant obstacle.
If the SNP makes inroads, Labour’s route to a majority at Westminster narrows considerably.
The Countdown to the Election
As the election date approaches, it’s important to remember that polls tend to narrow, and voters become more engaged. Even Tony Blair, who secured a historic majority in 1997, saw his lead diminish in the run-up to the election.
For Keir Starmer, who needs to overcome a substantial Tory majority, these shifts could be decisive in determining the final outcome.