In the initial 2024 poll, Trump holds a two-point lead over Biden, securing support among Hispanic and young voters, while 17 percent express intent to vote for a third candidate

Trump’s Lead in Key Demographics

In the latest USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll, Donald Trump has surged ahead of Joe Biden, leading among crucial voter segments.

The findings reveal Trump’s lead over Biden among Hispanic voters by a margin of five points (39% to 34%) and among younger voters by three points (37% to 34%).

These groups were previously won by Biden during the 2020 presidential election, contributing significantly to his victory over Trump.

Shifts in Voter Support

The survey also highlights a decline in Biden’s backing among black voters, a pivotal demographic that strongly supported him in 2020.

Biden’s current support among black voters stands at 63%, a noticeable drop from the substantial 87% he secured in the previous election.

This shift, coupled with Trump’s gains in Hispanic and younger voter demographics, positions Trump ahead in the overall race.

Overall Poll Figures

In the broader scope, the poll illustrates Trump leading at 39% compared to Biden’s 37%, with 17% expressing support for an unnamed third-party candidate.

When specific third-party candidates were mentioned, Trump’s lead extended to 37%, with Biden trailing at 34%.

Notably, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garnered substantial support at 10% among third-party candidates.

Concerns and Voter Trends

The trend indicates concerns for Biden, especially concerning younger voters who had overwhelmingly supported him previously.

This demographic, often at odds with Republicans on issues like abortion access and climate change, shows a considerable shift away from Biden, with a notable portion considering third-party alternatives.

Implications of Third-Party Support

A significant revelation from the poll is the inclination of 20% of Hispanic and black voters, along with 21% of younger voters, to opt for candidates beyond the two main contenders.

This diversification in voter choice appears to affect Biden’s support base, potentially contributing to Trump’s narrowing deficit among black voters.

Support Dynamics and Primary Preferences

Although concerns about Biden’s age persist, as he stands as the oldest American president in history, the poll reflects substantial backing for him among likely Democratic primary voters.

Despite some wavering support among certain demographics, Biden still retains significant loyalty within his party, with 74% of likely Democratic primary voters endorsing him.

Trump’s Resilience and Core Support

Trump, despite his own legal issues on the horizon, including federal and state court trials, maintains a staunch core of supporters.

Notably, 44% of his supporters self-identify as unwavering in their backing for him, a striking contrast to the 18% of Biden supporters who describe themselves similarly dedicated.

Poll Methodology and Future Projections

Conducted among 1,000 likely voters via landline and cellphone, the survey carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Looking forward, while Trump leads the polls for the Republican nomination, the first nominating contests are still weeks away, setting the stage for an evolving and closely watched political landscape.

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