Tropical Storm Gombe ‘set to intensify’ this weekend – but will it hit SA?

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) is keeping a close eye on Tropical Storm Gombe, as it powers its way towards the eastern coast of the continent – but do these conditions pose a threat to Mzansi?

What you need to know about Tropical Storm Gombe

Earlier this week, Tropical Storm Gombe moved over the northern parts of Madagascar and into the Mozambique Channel. While in the Channel, Gombe strengthened reaching intense tropical cyclone strength it is currently situated over the eastern parts of Nampula Province, Mozambique.

Although Gombe is expected to weaken over the next 48 hours, the extreme weather event is slated to ‘re-intensify’ by Sunday. It is likely to stay on a south-easterly track, after it has made landfall in Malawi.

Will South Africa bit hit by Tropical Storm Gombe?

According to SAWS, the current projections are favourable for South Africa. Their latest projections show that Trioical Storm Gombe will head back into the Indian Ocean, without posing an immediate, direct threat to SA.

“During today, 11 March 2022, Tropical Storm Gombe is expected to weaken as it tracks further westwards. It is then forecasted to turn south-eastwards before reaching Malawi, and head back into the Channel on Sunday, 13 March 2022 – at which point it will re-intensify.”

“At this stage, there still is some uncertainty with the exact track Gombe will take, however, the most likely projection is that it will remain in a south-easterly trajectory. As such, it poses no immediate, direct threat to South Africa.”

SAWS statement

Tracking the ‘cyclone-strength’ storm

However, these tropical storms can be fiercely unpredictable, and SAWS have stressed that their data is subject to change. For now though, South Africans can rest easy – and this graph shows where Gombe is heading.

The current forecast track of tropical storm Gombe, as issued by Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) La Reunion at 08h00 SAST on 11 March 2022. Source: MeteoFrance
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