A team of sustainability researchers has estimated that wealthy countries that have managed to “decouple” their economic growth from carbon emissions will require over 200 years to achieve net-zero emissions.
Their calculations considered consumption emissions, which include emissions from goods and services where they are consumed rather than produced, a factor typically excluded from international net-zero strategies. The UK Government, for instance, stated that its net-zero policy does not encompass consumption emissions due to their inability to influence production in foreign countries. Despite the UK’s relatively faster emissions reduction compared to the other nations studied, it would need to accelerate this process by fivefold by 2025 to help prevent the Earth from warming beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Published in the Lancet Planetary Health journal, the researchers argue that countries like the UK should adopt a “post-growth” policy, involving reductions in energy-intensive production, decreased consumption among the wealthy, and a shift from private cars to public transportation. This transition away from economic growth towards post-growth is distinct from a recession and does not imply hardship or loss of livelihoods.
The study identified 11 affluent nations that achieved “absolute decoupling,” meaning they decreased emissions while increasing GDP between 2013 and 2019. These nations, including the UK, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Sweden, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, and Denmark, were evaluated for their future emission reduction rates compared to what is necessary to stay within the 1.5°C limit. None of these countries are currently reducing emissions at a rate sufficient to meet this goal, with some requiring a 30-fold acceleration of reduction rates.
The assessment did not include emissions from agriculture, forestry, land use, international aviation, and shipping, indicating that further reductions would be needed when these sectors are accounted for. While the study’s lead author, Jefim Vogel, argues that economic growth in wealthy countries is not environmentally sustainable, developing countries like Uruguay and Mexico are increasing production and consumption without exceeding their share of the carbon budget. The researchers propose that affluent countries prioritize ecological sustainability, reduce carbon-intensive industries, address income inequality, promote energy efficiency in buildings, reduce food waste, transition to public transportation, and introduce laws to extend product lifespans.
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