Keir Starmer Scrambles to Save Labour from Shock Defeat as Hard-Left Greens Surge Ahead in Gorton and Denton by-Election

Ballot boxes haven’t even opened yet, but nerves are already shredded in Gorton and Denton.

What should have been a routine hold for Labour has turned into a cliffhanger that could rattle the foundations of Keir Starmer’s leadership.

With just hours to go before voting closes, party activists are scrambling, rival camps are smelling blood, and one unexpected player — the Greens — is threatening to rewrite the script entirely.

Poll That Changed the Mood Overnight

A constituency poll by Opinium dropped like a bombshell.

Among voters considered very likely to cast a ballot, the Green Party of England and Wales was placed on 30 per cent, with Labour and Reform UK both sitting on 28 per cent.

Technically, everything is within the margin of error.

Practically, it has sent Labour’s campaign into overdrive.

Seat-level polling is notoriously unreliable — small samples, unpredictable turnout patterns — but perception matters in politics.

And right now, the perception is that this race is no longer safe.

Starmer’s Leadership on the Line

This by-election isn’t just about one Manchester constituency.

It has morphed into a test of authority for Starmer, who only narrowly survived internal turbulence weeks ago.

The decision to block Andy Burnham from standing as Labour’s candidate raised eyebrows.

Burnham, currently Mayor of Manchester, has long been seen as someone with the stature to command attention at Westminster.

Instead, Labour selected Angeliki Stogia, hoping to maintain party discipline and avoid fuelling leadership speculation.

Critics argue that sidelining a high-profile local figure may have weakened Labour’s natural advantage in the area.

Campaigning From a Distance

Starmer did visit the constituency — briefly.

The optics, however, did him no favours.

He was kept largely inside a sports centre, flanked by party figures including Lucy Powell, and carefully shielded from unscripted interactions.

For a party that insists it’s listening to voters, the images told a different story.

There was no clear evidence of spontaneous public engagement.

Even his reported meeting with Burnham produced no photographic proof.

In politics, absence of imagery can speak volumes.

Greens Sensing a Breakthrough Moment

The Greens, led nationally by co-lead Carla Denyer and local figures such as Zack Polanski, have campaigned aggressively in the constituency.

They have leaned heavily into issues resonating with parts of the electorate, including Gaza — a sensitive topic among Gorton and Denton’s significant Muslim population.

Their broader platform has raised alarm elsewhere.

Internal documents highlighted by critics reveal proposals to legalise recreational use of drugs including heroin and crack cocaine, decriminalise prostitution, introduce sweeping immigration reforms, and offer reparations related to Britain’s role in the slave trade.

On immigration, the proposals are especially controversial.

The party envisions abolishing immigration detention, granting broad amnesty even to failed asylum seekers, and allowing immediate NHS access and employment rights for Channel arrivals.

Migrants would be treated as “citizens in waiting,” given housing and income support similar to a Universal Basic Income model.

Opponents call it financially reckless and dangerous.

The Greens say they are proud of the policies and insist they are striking a chord on doorsteps.

Reform Still in the Fight

Reform is not giving up either.

Their candidate, Matt Goodwin, has framed this by-election as a referendum on Starmer’s leadership and Labour’s direction.

Reform’s broader brand, shaped by figures like Nigel Farage, thrives on moments when mainstream parties appear divided or hesitant.

If turnout among anti-Labour voters consolidates around Reform instead of splintering, the numbers could shift dramatically.

In a three-way contest where just a few hundred votes might decide the outcome, momentum matters more than history.

Why This Seat Matters So Much

Gorton and Denton has traditionally been considered solid Labour territory.

A loss here, especially to the Greens, would signal something deeper than mid-term dissatisfaction.

It would suggest fragmentation on the Left, with voters drifting toward more radical platforms.

For Starmer, who has tried to reposition Labour as disciplined and electable, that would be a dangerous narrative.

It would also embolden internal critics who argue he is losing touch with grassroots activists.

What’s Next?

If Labour holds the seat, even narrowly, Starmer will claim vindication and attempt to draw a line under weeks of speculation.

Expect messaging about unity and resilience.

If the Greens pull off a shock win, the fallout could be seismic.

Labour would face renewed internal debate over leadership, strategy, and ideological direction.

The Conservatives and Reform would seize on the chaos, arguing that the Left is splintering.

And if Reform somehow edges ahead, the result would send shockwaves through Westminster, strengthening the argument that insurgent parties can crack traditional strongholds.

Whichever way it falls, the outcome will shape not just local representation, but national political momentum heading into the next general election cycle.

Summary

Gorton and Denton’s by-election has evolved into a razor-tight three-way battle between Labour, the Greens, and Reform.

A poll placing the Greens slightly ahead has unsettled Keir Starmer’s party, raising questions about his leadership after recent internal tensions.

Controversial Green policies on drugs and immigration have intensified debate, while Reform frames the contest as a verdict on Starmer himself.

The final result could either steady Labour’s ship or deepen the political storm brewing around its leader.