Global Conflict and Retail Tactics Contribute to New Spike in Fuel Prices

Global Conflict and Retail Tactics Contribute to New Spike in Fuel Prices

In a recurring trend, fuel prices have begun to climb once again, after a period of stabilization following previous increases.


These recent price hikes have been attributed to distribution challenges brought on by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.

As of now, the average cost per liter of petrol has reached £1.45, marking an increase of 1p since the commencement of July and almost 2p since June.

Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which commenced earlier, has significantly contributed to the escalation of fuel prices.

Companies severing ties with Russia in the aftermath of the Ukrainian invasion led to supply constraints, resulting in an upheaval in the fuel market.


Russia, being one of the world’s foremost crude oil exporters, has a substantial influence on global fuel prices.

Despite accounting for only eight percent of the UK’s oil demand, the conflict’s ripple effects have amplified the global situation.

This has been especially consequential for the European Union, which heavily depends on Russian oil imports, amounting to 27 percent of its supply.

Supermarket Profit Margins and Price Trends

Amid the complex backdrop of geopolitical tensions, domestic elements have also played a role in fuel price dynamics.

It has been revealed that supermarkets, seeking to maximize profits, have increased their margins on fuel sales.


An investigation by the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) exposed a pattern where several supermarket chains augmented their profit margins by an average of 6p per liter between 2019 and 2022.

This trend not only contributes to the escalating prices but also raises questions about fairness for consumers.

The Role of Wholesale Costs and Adjusted Prices

An examination of the fuel market reveals that supermarkets have not adjusted their prices in accordance with declining wholesale costs.

This situation has sparked discussions about the possibility of reduced pump prices and the passing on of savings to consumers.

RAC fuel spokesperson Simon Williams emphasized that this gap between wholesale and retail prices has allowed supermarkets to benefit substantially from market fluctuations triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.


Historical and Current Fuel Costs

While the current petrol and diesel prices, averaging 147.62p and 148.56p per liter respectively, are considered high by historical standards, they do not match the extreme levels witnessed in 2022.

During that time, some filling stations saw prices exceeding £2 per liter.

A milestone was reached when the average cost of a full tank of fuel surpassed £100 for vehicles with a 55-liter fuel capacity in July of that year.

Conclusion and Future Prospects

The intertwining of geopolitical events, market dynamics, and supermarket pricing strategies has contributed to the recent surge in fuel prices.

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted oil supply chains, while supermarket profit-seeking behaviors have further inflated costs for consumers.


While efforts have been made to offer some respite, such as a temporary 5p cut to fuel duty announced by former Chancellor Rishi Sunak, the overall picture remains complex.

As the world navigates these challenges, consumers and market analysts alike are left wondering about the future trajectory of fuel prices and the broader implications for the global economy.

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