Bitcoin started the week trying to climb back above the $92,000 mark, a move that has traders cautiously optimistic after weeks of sharp swings.
This uptick comes at a pivotal moment for investors, who are now zeroing in on one key event: the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Analysts are asking whether the Federal Reserve will finally cut interest rates—a decision that could dramatically reshape expectations for 2026.
Lessons from History: Rate Cuts and Bitcoin Behavior
Looking back, previous rate-cut announcements on September 17 and October 29 reveal a familiar story.
Bitcoin often rises in the days leading up to the news, fueled by speculation and optimism.
Then, after the announcements, the market experiences a brief lift before sliding again—a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario.
This pattern shows that while rate cuts are generally bullish in theory, short-term traders often take profits immediately, creating sharp but temporary moves in the market.
Macro Factors Could Change the Game
Today’s market environment, however, is not a simple replay of past cycles.
Liquidity conditions, on-chain metrics, and investor positioning all interact in ways that make this period unique.
Stablecoin reserves, for instance, are an early indicator of whether investors are ready to deploy capital into risk assets.
Rising reserves suggest confidence and preparedness, while flat or declining levels may signal caution amid ongoing uncertainty about inflation and policy direction.
Funding rates also matter. In a market that has corrected roughly 36% and is still operating under high rates, excessive leverage can trigger volatile swings if the Fed surprises traders with an earlier-than-expected cut.
Neutral or modestly positive funding rates, however, suggest that the market is reasonably positioned to weather macro news without overreaction.
Weekly Chart Shows Tentative Stabilization
Bitcoin’s weekly chart reflects a market trying to regain its footing after a multi-week pullback.
The price currently hovers around $91,800, near the 100-week moving average, a historically important support level.
This suggests that long-term investors are defending key structures even as momentum remains fragile.
Despite this support, Bitcoin still trades below the 50-week moving average, which points downward—a sign that medium-term pressures remain bearish.
Recent selling has been met with relatively weak buying, indicating that while bulls are present, they are not yet strong enough to drive a decisive recovery.
What Traders Should Watch
For Bitcoin to gain real momentum, it needs to hold the 100-week moving average and form a series of higher weekly lows.
If it does, a recovery phase could be in play.
Failure to defend this zone, on the other hand, could open the door to deeper declines and confirm a more extended bearish trend.
Ultimately, the upcoming FOMC meeting will test how well Bitcoin can navigate the intersection of macro liquidity conditions and internal market positioning.
This cycle may offer more structural support than previous rate-cut events, but risk management remains essential for traders looking to protect capital while chasing potential gains.
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