Trump Administration Prepares Weeks-Long Military Campaign Against Iran With Potentially Existential Consequences for Tehran and Wider Middle East

Fears of a significant US strike on Iran are escalating, with sources warning that the Trump administration could launch a “weeks-long campaign” that would resemble a full-scale war rather than a limited strike.

Officials say such an operation could be “existential for the regime” in Tehran and reshape power dynamics across the Middle East.

Insiders describe the potential action as far broader than last year’s 12-day conflict targeting Iran’s underground nuclear facilities, with coordination expected alongside Israel.

Reports indicate that the campaign would not be limited to airstrikes but could include strikes aimed at regime leadership, military infrastructure, and communication systems.

Diplomacy and Deadlines

Earlier this month, Trump advisers Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff met in Geneva with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

The three-hour talks were described as “progressive” in some areas, but significant gaps remain.

Vice President JD Vance told Fox News that while the administration seeks a diplomatic solution, Trump has set red lines that Tehran is not currently willing to meet.

The US has now issued Iran a two-week deadline to submit a detailed proposal, echoing a previous approach during Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025, where a short window preceded direct military action.

Military Buildup in the Region

The US has dramatically increased its presence in the Middle East.

Two aircraft carriers, over a dozen warships, hundreds of fighter jets, and advanced air defense systems have been deployed.

In the past 24 hours alone, 50 additional fighter jets, including F-35s, F-22s, and F-16s, have arrived.

Over 150 cargo flights have transported weapons and ammunition to the region.

Israel is preparing for possible conflict, with more than 200 combat aircraft ready and plans in place to coordinate with US forces.

A second US aircraft carrier strike group, the USS Gerald R. Ford, is expected to arrive in the eastern Mediterranean soon to support operations.

Diplomatic Tensions With the UK

The UK has refused the US permission to use RAF bases in the event of a strike on Iran, citing concerns about breaches of international law.

This disagreement is reportedly linked to Trump’s withdrawal of support for Sir Keir Starmer’s deal to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, which involves a 99-year leaseback of the strategically vital Diego Garcia military base.

Trump has publicly warned that Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford could be necessary for any military action against Tehran, claiming such a strike would be legal under international law if Iran threatened the UK or other allied nations.

Potential Scope of Military Operations

Analysts warn that a US campaign could aim to incapacitate Iran’s leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials.

The operation may attempt to disrupt the regime’s command and communications, potentially creating opportunities for internal opposition forces to challenge the government.

Experts note that this scenario could have a “dramatic influence on the entire region,” destabilizing not only Iran but also neighboring countries and energy markets.

What’s Next?

The coming days are critical. US sources suggest that a strike could be imminent, with some estimating a high probability of kinetic action within weeks.

Meanwhile, diplomatic channels remain open, but the Trump administration has signaled that patience is limited.

Israel and other regional allies are preparing for potential escalation, and the UK continues to insist on adherence to international law regarding the use of its bases.

The situation remains fluid, and international observers are watching closely for any move that could spark a full-scale conflict in the Middle East.

Summary

By ELIANA SILVER, SENIOR FOREIGN NEWS REPORTER

Published: 05:06 EST, 20 February 2026 | Updated: 09:14 EST, 20 February 2026

The Trump administration is reportedly considering a large-scale military campaign against Iran, potentially lasting weeks and coordinated with Israel.

Officials warn the operation could threaten the Iranian regime’s survival and alter Middle Eastern power dynamics.

Diplomatic efforts in Geneva have made limited progress, and the US has expanded its military presence, deploying carriers, warships, and fighter jets.

Disagreements with the UK over base access, coupled with plans to target Iranian leadership and military infrastructure, heighten the risk of full-scale war.

Analysts caution that any strike could have sweeping regional consequences, and the coming weeks will determine whether diplomacy holds or conflict erupts.