Even with the recent gains across the crypto market, it’s clear we’re not in full altcoin season just yet.
One key reason? Bitcoin is still dominating the scene.
When Bitcoin holds a strong grip on the market, altcoins usually don’t get much room to shine.
Right now, Bitcoin’s dominance is still hovering above 60%, and that’s a big deal.
Why? Because as long as it stays that high, there’s always a chance Bitcoin could reassert even more control—and drag the altcoin market down with it.
Bitcoin Dominance Drops Below 61% but It Might Not Last
Crypto analyst Colin Talks Crypto recently shared his take on X (formerly Twitter), comparing what’s happening now to what we saw back in December 2024.
At that time, Bitcoin’s dominance broke down from its trend channel—the “blue channel”—and altcoins had a short-lived rally.
Now, we’re seeing a similar pattern again. Bitcoin dominance has slipped under 61% and is moving below that same channel.
But Colin warns that this might not be a real shift.
It could just be a fakeout—another temporary dip that quickly bounces back, pushing dominance even higher.
If that bounce happens, it could be bad news for altcoins.
A stronger Bitcoin means less capital flowing into alternative coins, which might cause them to tumble.
Could This Be the Real Start of Altcoin Season?
Then again, what if this time is different? Colin suggests that Bitcoin’s dominance might test the underside of that blue channel around 62%.
If it gets rejected again and continues falling, that could be the confirmation everyone’s been waiting for: altcoin season is finally here.
Supporting that idea, the ETH/BTC chart has started to reverse.
That means Ethereum could be gaining strength relative to Bitcoin—another possible clue that Bitcoin’s reign might be weakening.
Why Altcoins Still Aren’t in the Clear
Even though we’re seeing some hopeful signs, there are still risks for altcoins.
Bitcoin dominance is still sitting close to that lower boundary, and it wouldn’t take much for it to climb back into the channel.
If that happens, it’s a signal that the altcoin season is not starting after all.
And there’s another scenario that could be just as frustrating: sideways movement.
If Bitcoin dominance doesn’t go up or down in a meaningful way, we could end up in a drawn-out chop where altcoins slowly bleed over several months.
Not fun for investors looking for action.
The Ideal Outcome for Altcoin Fans
So, what’s the best-case scenario if you’re rooting for altcoins? According to Colin, it’s a sustained breakdown of Bitcoin dominance from that channel.
That would allow both Bitcoin and altcoins to rise in USD value together, which is the sweet spot most traders are hoping for.
For now, though, Bitcoin’s dominance remains stubbornly high—well above 60%.
Until we see a confirmed breakdown or consistent rejection at that upper trendline, the altcoin party is still on hold.
