Economic Impact of IDF’s Gaza Operation
As the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) prepare for their operation in Gaza to root out Hamas, the unfolding events in the coming weeks could have significant implications for the global economy.
Thus far, the market responses to the ongoing tragedy since the tragic events of the past week have been relatively moderate.
Market Reactions and Global Economy
Oil and gas prices have risen, though not to the extent seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Stock markets, it seems, are adopting a “wait and see” approach, while bond markets have already experienced significant sell-offs, albeit for distinct reasons.
Historical Perspective and Current Situation
Much attention is given to the comparison with the Yom Kippur War in 1973 and the oil shock that followed, which severely affected Western economies, leading to skyrocketing inflation, crashing stock and property markets, and prolonged industrial unrest that eventually paved the way for the Thatcher government in 1979.
While the current situation hasn’t reached those levels, Western countries are now less reliant on OPEC’s oil compared to half a century ago.
Fragile Global Economy
However, the world economy is already in a vulnerable state, having faced multiple shocks since the global financial crisis.
Potential Economic Consequences
A slight push could tip major economies, including the UK, into recession, reignite inflation, and compel central banks to postpone interest rate cuts or even consider reversals.
The strain on public finances, stemming from significant bailouts in the past 15 years, leaves Chancellor Jeremy Hunt with limited options, as he candidly admitted at the IMF conference last week.
Hope for Restraint and Stability
The best-case scenario entails the IDF exercising relative restraint, the Gaza crisis being contained, and energy prices gradually receding. Any other outcome could usher in a challenging economic period.
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