As the three-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, many are holding onto the hope that peace could finally be on the horizon. However, the path to a ceasefire is anything but smooth.
Tensions surrounding negotiations have only intensified, particularly with the involvement of the United States and Russia holding direct talks without Ukrainian representatives.
The fear of Ukraine’s fate being decided by others grows as Europe scrambles to have its voice heard, especially with the tensions between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and former President Donald Trump.
Diplomatic Moves and the Growing Rift
While there are efforts to broker peace, leaders like Sir Keir Starmer of the UK and French President Emmanuel Macron are racing to Washington, hoping to sway U.S. President Joe Biden into recognizing that Europe must have a seat at the table in negotiations.
In the midst of this diplomatic hustle, former President Trump has weighed in, claiming that Russia holds the upper hand in the discussions.
He’s also indicated that if Zelensky is willing to negotiate, talks about security promises in exchange for some of Ukraine’s valuable resources could be on the table.
As these talks unfold, Putin likely watches with growing satisfaction.
If a ceasefire were to solidify the situation, Russia could retain control over nearly 20% of Ukraine’s land.
This includes vital industrial and agricultural regions, as well as territory that Putin has successfully integrated into Russia’s sphere.
However, this apparent success comes at a high cost.
The Gains for Russia
One of Russia’s biggest victories in this conflict is the territory it has managed to seize. A ceasefire, if it occurs, would likely freeze Russia’s control over almost one-fifth of Ukraine’s land.
Aside from Crimea, which was annexed in 2014, Russia now controls substantial parts of five Ukrainian regions.
Areas like Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia were annexed by Russia in 2022, despite the ongoing war.
By 2025, Russia has nearly completed its grip on Luhansk, while the other regions are mostly under its control.
The Kremlin has been working diligently to “Russify” these areas, issuing Russian passports, promoting Russian media, and even converting financial transactions to the ruble.
While it’s unclear how much territory Ukraine will be forced to surrender in a ceasefire deal, it’s clear that much of this land may be lost.
The U.S. has already signaled that returning Ukraine to its pre-2014 borders is unrealistic, and the Kremlin expects concessions from Ukraine regarding its territories, especially those seized from Russia’s Kursk region.
Natural Resources and Economic Gains for Russia
Alongside territorial control, Russia has also gained access to Ukraine’s valuable natural resources.
The Donbas region, which spans parts of Luhansk and Donetsk, is rich in coal, metals, and other minerals.
These resources have long been central to Ukraine’s industrial heartland, and now, they are largely under Russian control.
Russia’s occupation of Ukraine’s key industrial and agricultural zones has also provided it with significant control over the country’s economic infrastructure.
In addition to coal, Russia has seized critical lithium deposits in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia.
These deposits are crucial for advanced technology and energy sectors.
The growing potential for Russia to exploit these resources in the future raises concerns, especially as Ukraine is reportedly considering striking deals with the U.S. for security guarantees in exchange for future revenues from these resources.
However, with improving relations between Russia and the U.S., there is speculation that Russia could even negotiate preferential deals for oil, gas, and minerals, which could be delivered directly from the contested areas.
The NATO Factor: Ukraine’s Dreams for Membership Dashed
Despite Ukraine’s hopes of joining NATO as a security measure, this dream appears to be slipping away.
NATO membership would protect Ukraine under Article 5, the alliance’s collective defense provision.
However, NATO membership for Ukraine is a non-starter for Russia, and with the possibility of Trump returning to the White House, that dream seems even more unlikely.
The U.S. has made it clear that NATO membership for Ukraine is not a realistic outcome.
Even so, European leaders, particularly in the UK and France, are crafting their own plan.
They propose a peacekeeping force stationed in Ukraine at critical infrastructure points.
These peacekeepers would aim to deter Russian aggression and support Ukraine’s security efforts, especially around demilitarized zones.
Putin’s Support and Russia’s Shift to Non-Western Alliances
Despite the immense human cost of the war, Putin’s approval ratings have surged in Russia.
Recent polling shows his popularity reaching 87%, up from 69% just before the invasion.
His aggressive actions, while devastating for Ukraine, have evidently solidified his position at home.
Additionally, Russia has been working hard to build relationships with non-Western countries like China, India, and Iran, positioning itself as a leader in the Global South and East, challenging Western dominance on the world stage.
Russia’s Military and Technological Advances
From a military standpoint, Russia has gained valuable experience in large-scale modern warfare.
Despite heavy losses, Russia’s armed forces have refined their tactics and gained a better understanding of both their own capabilities and those of Western technology used by Ukraine.
Russia has also made significant strides in developing new warfighting technologies, especially in drone warfare.
The Toll of War: Casualties and Losses
However, Russia has suffered immense casualties, with estimates suggesting that between 700,000 and 1.2 million Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded over the course of the war.
This staggering loss comes despite the use of both conscripts and private military companies like the Wagner Group, as well as prisoners sent to the front lines.
The high casualty rate can be attributed to the brutal tactics employed by Russian forces, who have relied on artillery bombardments and massive waves of soldiers to wear down Ukrainian defenses.
NATO Expansion and Russia’s Strategic Loss
In a bitter twist, while Russia has managed to halt Ukraine’s NATO ambitions, the invasion has triggered the exact opposite effect—an expansion of NATO.
Finland and Sweden, previously neutral, applied for NATO membership in 2022, with Finland officially joining in 2023 and Sweden following in 2024.
The addition of these countries has effectively doubled the NATO-Russia border, a direct challenge to Putin’s long-standing opposition to NATO’s eastward expansion.
Economic Strain and the Path to Stagflation
Economically, Russia is on the brink of crisis. Military spending has inflated to unsustainable levels, and as a result, the country faces high inflation and an impending economic slowdown.
Experts warn that continuing the war will only exacerbate these issues, leading to stagflation—a combination of stagnation and inflation that will hurt the Russian economy for years to come.
The Future of Ukraine’s Identity and the Global Image of Russia
Putin’s efforts to undermine Ukrainian identity have failed spectacularly.
Polls show that Ukrainians are more committed to their national identity than ever before, with a growing rejection of Russian influence.
Meanwhile, Russia’s global standing has taken a severe hit, as its military struggles in Ukraine, and its reputation as a world power is increasingly questioned.
As the war continues and the road to peace remains uncertain, the sacrifices made by both Russia and Ukraine are becoming increasingly clear.
The conflict has reshaped borders, altered international alliances, and left both nations with deep scars, yet its resolution is still nowhere in sight.