Russia has publicly stated that it is prepared to legally confirm it has no plans to attack NATO, with Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov saying Moscow would agree to a binding commitment covering both the EU and the US-led alliance.
Yet behind the headlines, US intelligence tells a starkly different story.
According to multiple sources familiar with classified assessments, Vladimir Putin has not abandoned ambitions to capture all of Ukraine and potentially reclaim former Soviet territories, despite ongoing peace negotiations.
Conflicting Narratives on Peace
The intelligence stands in sharp contrast to optimistic messaging from the White House, where President Donald Trump and his peace envoys insist Putin is genuinely seeking to end the conflict.
The most recent US report dates to late September and aligns with longstanding European concerns that Russia still covets not only Ukraine but NATO-adjacent lands.
Mike Quigley, a Democratic member of the House Intelligence Committee, summed it up: “The intelligence has always been that Putin wants more.
The Europeans are convinced of it. The Poles are absolutely convinced of it. The Baltics think they’re first.”
The Current Battlefield
Russia presently controls roughly 20% of Ukraine, including most of Luhansk and Donetsk, as well as parts of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Crimea.
Putin claims all four provinces and the Black Sea peninsula as Russian territory.
Trump’s team has reportedly pushed Kyiv to withdraw from a small part of Donetsk under a proposed peace plan—a demand Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and most of the population firmly reject.
Intelligence vs. Political Messaging
Adding to the confusion, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard posted that briefings to lawmakers highlighted Russia’s inability to wage a broader European war due to troop performance, suggesting Moscow cannot realistically conquer all of Ukraine, let alone Europe.
The Kremlin dismissed these assessments.
Spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the US reports “absolutely not true,” emphasizing that Russia could not vouch for the accuracy of unnamed sources.
Behind the Scenes of Negotiations
Trump’s negotiators, including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, have spent weeks hammering out a 20-point plan involving Ukrainian, Russian, and European officials.
While progress has reportedly been made, deep divisions over territorial concessions remain.
In Berlin, US, Ukrainian, and European negotiators reportedly reached broad agreement on security guarantees for Ukraine, to take effect once a peace deal is signed.
These guarantees would see a European security presence deployed both in neighboring countries and inside Ukraine, away from front lines, aimed at deterring future Russian aggression.
Contentious Territory and Military Limits
The details are still debated. Some proposals suggest limiting Ukraine’s military to 800,000 troops, though Russia reportedly wants an even lower ceiling.
The UK would supply intelligence support, while the US would oversee air patrols.
Crucially, the plan may require Zelensky to concede territory to Russia—something he has repeatedly refused.
Zelensky himself expressed caution, asking, “There’s a question I still can’t get an answer to: What will these security guarantees actually do?”
Putin’s Position Remains Firm
Moscow has consistently rejected foreign troops on Ukrainian soil.
At a recent news conference, Putin offered no concessions, insisting his terms must be met and highlighting territorial gains of 6,000 square kilometers this year.
Trump administration officials privately acknowledge that Putin may seek total victory rather than a negotiated settlement.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted, “We know what they wanted to achieve initially when the war began.
They haven’t achieved those objectives.”
What’s Next
The conflict remains at a precarious crossroads.
While Russia offers public assurances, intelligence assessments, ongoing negotiations, and geopolitical realities suggest the path to lasting peace is fraught with uncertainty.
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