Something was clearly up in Tory circles long before Robert Jenrick finally made his move.
You could feel it in the corridors, hear it in the half-lowered voices.
By the time senior Conservatives gathered at the Carlton Club last week, the party’s spiritual home, the gossip had gone from quiet suspicion to open chatter.
Everywhere you turned, the same name came up, paired with the same word: Reform.
At that January 8 reception, attended by figures as heavyweight as Baroness May and Liam Fox, the mood was electric.
One long-serving grandee leaned in and said Jenrick was already lined up as Reform UK’s shadow chancellor.
Whether bravado or inside knowledge, his confidence was striking.
Jenrick’s camp, predictably, poured cold water on it all.
But denials didn’t cool the atmosphere one bit.
Badenoch May Have Missed the Party, But Not the Message
Kemi Badenoch wasn’t at the Carlton Club that night, but she might as well have been.
Word reached Tory headquarters almost immediately, phones lighting up with anxious calls.
The rumours that had been circulating for weeks suddenly felt very real.
After Jenrick’s abrupt sacking and defection, one senior figure put it bluntly: he believed there was no other way for Jenrick to save his seat.
The plan, as it was understood, involved a dramatic reveal on a Sunday political show, a carefully timed leap that would land him a senior role under Nigel Farage.
Instead, Badenoch moved first, and the whole thing collapsed.
The Away Day That Now Looks Suspicious
Just hours before that Carlton Club reception, the shadow cabinet had been closeted away at a slick office suite overlooking the Tower of London. Badenoch was leading the session.
Those present recall Jenrick asking plenty of questions, but also scribbling far more notes than usual.
At the time, it raised eyebrows. In hindsight, it raises rather more.
Dinner followed, and Jenrick was, by all accounts, in good spirits.
One senior Tory later compared it to Judas sharing bread at the Last Supper.
It’s a brutal image, but it captures the sense of betrayal many now feel.
A Speech Too Explosive to Ignore
Within days, Badenoch’s team were bracing themselves.
Jenrick’s resignation felt inevitable. It came faster than expected.
After Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday, Badenoch was handed a document by a disgruntled aide: Jenrick’s defection speech. It was savage.
Designed not just to announce his move, but to wound the party on the way out.
It predicted electoral disaster in May and took sharp aim at three senior colleagues, accusing them of invisibility and incompetence.
Badenoch read it, consulted her inner circle, and decided he had to go.
She slept on it, then pulled the trigger.
A Sacking With Maximum Impact
The dismissal itself was handled with theatrical precision.
A pre-recorded video from Badenoch’s Essex home landed online just after 11am, perfectly timed to clash with a Farage press conference north of the border.
Jenrick didn’t even get the courtesy of a call from a senior ally.
The task was left to the chief whip, Dame Rebecca Harris.
For a man of Jenrick’s ambition, and ego, it was a deliberate snub.
Reform Was Never Fully Sold on Him
Westminster might have been stunned, but inside the Conservative Party it was no secret that Jenrick had been talking to Farage.
Dinner at the exclusive 5 Hertford Street before Christmas had sealed that knowledge.
Yet even in Reform UK, the welcome was lukewarm.
London mayoral hopeful Laila Cunningham publicly warned that Jenrick’s record on migrant hotels made him a questionable fit.
Inside Reform’s Millbank offices, doubts lingered.
Farage himself had previously branded Jenrick a fraud over immigration, and those words hadn’t been forgotten.
Ambition Meets a Changing Political Weather
Only weeks ago, Jenrick was dining with David Cameron and George Osborne.
So why jump now? The answer lies in Badenoch’s resurgence.
Since the autumn conference, her authority has grown, her poll numbers improved.
As she rose, Jenrick’s presence faded. His supporters went quiet.
The WhatsApp groups stopped buzzing.
When he finally crossed the floor, the prize he wanted wasn’t waiting for him.
A Reputation Reinforced, Not Rewritten
Jenrick insists his resignation from government in 2023 proved his principles on border control.
Others remember it came shortly after he was passed over for Home Secretary.
The threat his aides made at the time — boasting of a “grid” of attacks on Rishi Sunak — did lasting damage to his standing.
This week has only hardened the view among many colleagues that he is a risky ally.
The Personal Side of Political Ambition
Behind the scenes, Jenrick’s drive is said to be matched by that of his wife, Michal Berkner.
Observers still recall her visible dismay when Badenoch won the leadership in 2024.
She is also credited with encouraging his physical transformation, including his dramatic weight loss.
None of that ambition has gone away.
But the terrain has changed.
Entering the Lion’s Den
One senior Tory, quietly pleased to have derailed Jenrick’s carefully laid plans, summed it up neatly: Badenoch tried to accommodate him, but he was forever plotting.
Now he’s taken his talents to Reform, a party hardly known for internal harmony.
The irony isn’t lost on his former colleagues.
The scheming, they say, has already begun. This time, it’s aimed squarely at him.
What Happens Now?
Jenrick has made his leap, but not on his own terms.
Whether Reform proves a launchpad or a trap remains to be seen.
One thing is certain: the drama says as much about the fragile state of British conservatism as it does about the restless ambition of one of its most controversial figures.
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