Nigel Farage Warns Voters to Reject Keir Starmer in Manchester By-Election That Could Decide Labour Leadership Future

In normal times, a by-election in south Manchester might barely ripple beyond the city limits. Not this one.

Voters in Gorton and Denton head to the polls on Thursday in a contest that has morphed from routine to combustible.

What was once considered safe Labour territory is now a genuine three-way scrap — and the result could carry implications far beyond the constituency boundary.

At stake, some argue, is not just a seat in Parliament but the authority of Keir Starmer himself.

From Fortress Labour To Fragile Ground

At the 2024 general election, Labour’s Andrew Gwynne secured the seat with a majority north of 13,000. On paper, that looked comfortable.

But politics can turn quickly. Gwynne resigned last month on health grounds after being sacked as a minister over offensive WhatsApp messages, including one remark about an elderly constituent that triggered outrage.

His departure cracked open the door to an unpredictable contest.

Polling now suggests Labour’s dominance has evaporated.

Reform UK and the Greens are both in striking distance.

Farage Smells Blood

Arriving in the constituency on the eve of polling day, Nigel Farage did not mince his words.

He accused the Prime Minister of “panicking” and urged voters to use the ballot box to punish the Government.

For Reform, this is about more than one seat.

A strong showing in a former Labour stronghold would reinforce their argument that the political map is being redrawn — particularly in areas frustrated over immigration, living costs and trust in Westminster.

Farage’s message was blunt: back Reform, “ditch Starmer.”

The Burnham Factor

Hovering over the contest is the absent figure of Andy Burnham.

When Gwynne stepped down, speculation swirled that the Greater Manchester mayor might seek a return to Westminster.

Burnham, a former Cabinet minister with a substantial regional following, would have brought star power — and perhaps complicated leadership dynamics inside Labour.

But Starmer vetoed his candidacy.

Critics say that decision signalled nerves at the top.

Supporters argue it avoided turning a by-election into a leadership proxy war.

Either way, Burnham’s absence has added intrigue — and fuelled whispers that a Labour defeat could reopen questions about the Prime Minister’s authority.

Accusations Fly

The campaign has not exactly been genteel.

The Greens have accused Labour of distributing leaflets from a so-called tactical voting group they claim does not exist.

The material reportedly suggested Labour and Reform were neck and neck and recommended anti-Reform voters rally behind Labour.

The Greens insist established tactical voting organisations have instead endorsed their candidate, local plumber Hannah Spencer.

Labour, in turn, has accused the Greens of stoking tensions over Gaza in parts of the constituency with a large Muslim population.

A campaign video in Urdu, featuring images of Foreign Secretary David Lammy shaking hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, became part of the row.

Both sides have complained about misleading bar charts.

Both have accused the other of misinformation.

Police referrals have been mentioned. It has been, by most accounts, bruising.

A Three-Way Dead Heat

An Opinium poll this week underlined just how tight things are.

It put the Greens on 30 per cent, Labour on 28 and Reform on 27 — effectively a statistical tie.

In a contest this close, turnout could decide everything.

A few hundred votes — perhaps even fewer — may determine the outcome.

Starmer has framed the race as a straight fight between Labour and Reform, casting it as a choice between “unity and division.”

But the Greens insist they are not just competitive — they are leading.

The Bigger Picture

This by-election lands at a delicate moment for the Government.

Local elections loom in May, and economic pressures remain acute.

Energy bills, public sector pay, and NHS waiting lists continue to test voter patience.

Labour MPs privately acknowledge that defeat in Gorton and Denton would be symbolically damaging.

Some believe it could embolden critics inside the party.

Others argue that holding the seat — however narrowly — would validate Starmer’s strategy and steady nerves ahead of the next electoral test.

By-elections often act as protest votes. They can exaggerate dissatisfaction.

But occasionally, they reveal deeper shifts.

What’s Next?

If Labour loses, attention will immediately turn to whether internal murmurs about leadership intensify.

Starmer’s authority, while not instantly imperilled, could face sharper scrutiny.

If Reform wins, it will energise Farage’s national push and reinforce his claim to be Labour’s main challenger in parts of urban Britain.

If the Greens pull off an upset, it would mark one of their most significant parliamentary breakthroughs — and signal that progressive voters are willing to desert Labour in key constituencies.

And if Labour clings on? Expect a sigh of relief in Downing Street — and renewed claims that the Prime Minister’s steady approach is paying off.

Either way, the reverberations will stretch well beyond Manchester.

A Seat That Suddenly Matters

Gorton and Denton was once considered routine. Now it feels pivotal.

The ballots cast on Thursday will answer one immediate question: who represents south Manchester in Parliament?

But they may also hint at something larger — the mood of a restless electorate, and whether the Prime Minister’s grip on power is as secure as it once seemed.

---

Summary

A once-safe Labour seat in Gorton and Denton has become a fiercely contested three-way by-election between Labour, Reform UK and the Greens.

Former MP Andrew Gwynne resigned after controversy, opening the door to a volatile race.

Nigel Farage has accused Keir Starmer of panicking, while Labour’s decision to block Andy Burnham from standing has added to the drama.

With polling showing the Greens narrowly ahead and Reform close behind, the result could hinge on a handful of votes — and may carry implications for Starmer’s authority as Prime Minister ahead of upcoming local elections.