Marine Le Pen braces for court verdict as fraud allegations threaten her political future in France

Marine Le Pen’s political future hangs in the balance as a French court prepares to deliver a highly anticipated verdict.

The ruling will determine whether she and her National Rally (RN) party misused European Parliament funds—an allegation that could end her ambitions once and for all.

With a potential prison sentence and a ban from public office on the line, the far-right leader finds herself at one of the most critical junctures in her career.

Allegations of Misusing EU Funds

Le Pen, along with 24 other RN officials, stands accused of diverting funds meant for European parliamentary aides between 2004 and 2016.

Instead of employing them in Brussels, prosecutors claim the money was used to pay staff who worked directly for the party—violating EU regulations.

The case, which culminated in a nine-week trial in late 2024, has been described by Le Pen as politically motivated.

The Stakes Couldn’t Be Higher

If found guilty, Le Pen could face an immediate ban from holding public office, a penalty that would apply even if she appeals.

Prosecutors have sought a two-year prison sentence—though any jail time would be suspended while an appeal is pending.

However, an appeal would trigger a new trial likely scheduled for 2026, putting Le Pen’s presidential aspirations at risk just months before the 2027 election.

In a candid moment during the trial, Le Pen acknowledged the difficulty of swaying the judges, stating, “I feel we didn’t succeed in convincing you.”

The Political Fallout

Le Pen’s potential downfall would leave a vacuum in the far-right movement, with RN party chief Jordan Bardella emerging as a likely successor.

At just 29 years old, Bardella has already gained prominence, positioning himself as a strong contender should Le Pen be forced out of the political arena.

The Role of the Constitutional Council

In a separate but significant ruling, the Constitutional Council determined that immediate ineligibility aligns with the French Constitution.

However, the decision ultimately rests with the judges, who must weigh whether an immediate ban is proportionate and respects voter rights.

This legal nuance means the court has room to suspend a potential ban while an appeal is in process.

A Long Road to Political Legitimacy

Le Pen has spent over a decade trying to reshape her party’s image, moving away from the extremist reputation it held under her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen.

After renaming the party from the National Front to the National Rally in 2011, she pursued a strategy of “de-demonization” to appeal to a broader electorate.

Her efforts paid off in the 2023 snap legislative elections, where RN became the largest single party in the National Assembly, though it failed to secure an outright majority.

Eyes on 2027: Will Le Pen Overcome the Latest Challenge?

Despite past electoral defeats to Emmanuel Macron in 2017 and 2022, Le Pen remains a formidable force in French politics.

With Macron unable to run again in 2027, this could be her best—and perhaps last—shot at the presidency. However, the outcome of this trial could derail those ambitions entirely.

What Comes Next?

The court’s decision will determine whether Le Pen continues her fight or faces an abrupt political demise.

If she is ruled ineligible, RN will need to rally behind a new figurehead.

If she escapes a ban, she will still face a long battle to convince voters that she is fit to lead.

Either way, the verdict marks a pivotal moment in French politics, one that could reshape the far-right landscape for years to come.