Politics in Greater Manchester has suddenly become less about one parliamentary seat and more about Labour’s future at the very top.
With a crucial by-election looming, internal tensions are bubbling over, ambitions are being quietly activated, and party rivals are circling, sensing vulnerability.
What happens next could reshape Labour’s leadership far beyond this single vote.
Why Gorton and Denton Matters So Much
The Gorton & Denton by-election, scheduled for February 26, is being talked up inside Westminster as a make-or-break moment for Sir Keir Starmer.
Senior figures are warning that a poor result could trigger a serious leadership reckoning, especially if Labour fails to hold off challenges from Reform UK or the Greens.
Reform, led by Nigel Farage, is framing the contest as a direct judgment on Starmer’s leadership, while party insiders fear that losing such a traditionally safe seat would send shockwaves through Labour ranks.
Angela Rayner Steps Forward as Speculation Grows
Angela Rayner has wasted no time getting visible.
She hit the campaign trail this week, standing shoulder to shoulder with Labour’s newly selected candidate, Angeliki Stogia.
Behind the scenes, her movements are being read as more than just party loyalty.
According to allies, Rayner has assembled a £1 million war chest, positioning herself for a potential leadership bid if Starmer’s authority collapses.
Sources say she has been steadily lining up donors and supporters since leaving the Cabinet five months ago, following a controversy over underpaid stamp duty.
Quiet Deals and a Not-So-Quiet Strategy
Those close to Rayner suggest her operation has shifted up a gear.
Funding commitments are reportedly secured, and promises of future Cabinet roles are said to be circulating among loyal MPs.
One ally described it as a long-running “personal charm offensive” that has now reached the execution phase.
“She’s ready,” the source claimed, adding that the financial backing alone puts her in a strong position should the leadership suddenly be up for grabs.
Starmer’s Absence Raises Eyebrows
While Rayner is front and centre, Sir Keir Starmer himself has kept his distance.
Speaking during a trip to Asia, he declined to confirm whether he would personally campaign in the by-election.
That hesitation has only fuelled speculation.
One Labour MP was blunt, saying Starmer is unlikely to show up in Gorton because he is “toxic” locally and seen as disconnected from northern voters.
Andy Burnham Fallout Refuses to Fade
The controversy surrounding Manchester mayor Andy Burnham has added another layer of bitterness.
Burnham was blocked from standing in the seat, a decision that continues to anger his allies.
Although Burnham publicly pledged his support for Stogia, Liverpool mayor Steve Rotheram openly criticised what he called “gutless” anonymous briefings against Burnham from within government.
He warned that internal sniping only benefits Labour’s opponents and urged colleagues to put an end to it.
Sharp Words and Bruised Egos
Tensions escalated further after a Cabinet minister was quoted suggesting Burnham had been handed his career “on a plate” and was upset that his “second coming” was not being celebrated.
Burnham, for his part, has complained that some figures inside Labour feel free to leak damaging comments to the media without accountability.
The Numbers That Haunt Labour Strategists
Labour comfortably won Gorton & Denton in 2024 with 18,555 votes, but the chasing pack is stronger now.
Reform UK finished second last time with just over 5,100 votes, narrowly ahead of the Greens.
The seat became vacant after MP Andrew Gwynne stepped down for health reasons, opening the door to a contest that now feels far more unpredictable than Labour would like.
New Faces Enter the Race
The Greens have unveiled Hannah Spencer, a 34-year-old plumber and local councillor, with party co-leader Zack Polanski urging voters to act quickly to stop Reform.
Reform UK, meanwhile, has selected former academic and GB News presenter Matt Goodwin as its candidate.
Labour’s Angeliki Stogia, a Manchester city councillor for Whalley Range, was officially launched with backing from senior figures including party chair Anna Turley, deputy leader Lucy Powell, and chief whip Jonathan Reynolds.
A Local Campaign With National Consequences
Addressing supporters, Stogia spoke passionately about her Manchester roots and her determination to campaign door to door, pitching Labour as a unifying force in a divided political climate.
Burnham echoed that support, promising to stand by her throughout the campaign.
Yet the sense remains that this vote is about more than just Manchester.
For Labour, it’s a stress test of unity, leadership, and credibility.
For Starmer, it could be the moment that defines whether he survives—or whether rivals like Rayner are about to make their move.
What Happens Next?
As campaigning intensifies, all eyes will be on turnout, margins, and whether Labour’s traditional base holds firm.
A solid win could quiet the rebels, at least temporarily.
A shock loss or narrow escape, however, may unleash a leadership battle that has been quietly brewing for months.
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