Despite an expected record of world cereal production in 2021, global cereal inventories are heading for a contraction in 2021/2022.
A new report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (FAO) ‘FAO’s Cereal Supply and Demand Brief’, released on Thursday, November 4, 2021, revealed the development.
The report pegged the world cereal output in 2021 at 2 793 million tonnes, down by 6.
7 million tonnes since the previous report in October.
According to the report, the rise was largely due to cuts on the estimates of wheat production in the Islamic Republic of Iran, Turkey, and the United States of America.
By contrast, global coarse grains output has revised upwards.
An upward revision to maize production was witnessed, driven by better yields in Brazil and India and improved prospects in several West African countries.
Compared to last year, global cereal production was forecast to increase and reach a new record level.
World total cereal utilisation in 2021/22 was forecast at 2 812 million tonnes, heading for a 1.
7 per cent gain from the 2020/21 estimated level, driven by an anticipated increase in global food consumption of wheat, rising in tandem with the world population.
Also, foreseen higher feed and industrial uses of maize are expected to contribute to the annual increase.
World cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2022 are forecast to fall by 0.
8 per cent below their opening levels, to 819 million tonnes.
Consequently, the world cereals stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to decline slightly, from 29.
4 per cent in 2020/21 to 28.
5 per cent in 2021/22.
Following an upward review of global trade in wheat and rice, world trade in cereals is forecast to expand and reach a new record in 2021/22 at 478 million tonnes, up 0.
3 per cent from the 2020/21 level.
Global cereal production to hit an all-time high in 2021