Europe Endured Its Coldest January in 16 Years as a Wandering Polar Jet Stream Pushed Arctic Air Across the Continent

If January felt like it dragged straight out of a freezer, there’s a solid reason for that.

New data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service shows Europe just lived through its coldest January in 16 years.

For many countries, it was the chilliest start to a year since 2010, with average temperatures sinking to around –2.34°C, well below what’s considered normal.

People across northern and eastern Europe noticed it immediately — frozen roads, stubborn ice, and heating systems working overtime.

This wasn’t just a run of bad luck either.

Scientists say the cold snap had a clear driver high above our heads.

A Wandering Jet Stream Changed the Weather Script

The main culprit was a meandering polar jet stream, a fast-moving band of air that normally keeps Arctic cold locked far to the north.

In late January, that jet stream buckled and dipped south, allowing icy Arctic air to spill into Europe and North America.

This kind of wobble isn’t unheard of, but it can bring dramatic consequences when it happens.

Large parts of Fennoscandia, the Baltic states, eastern Europe, Siberia, and even the central and eastern United States were hit by widespread cold at the same time.

Meteorologists have long noted that disruptions to the jet stream can lead to longer-lasting cold spells, snow events, and temperature swings — even as the planet warms overall.

Meanwhile, the Southern Hemisphere Was Burning

While Europe layered up, the Southern Hemisphere faced the opposite extreme.

January delivered record-breaking heat to parts of Australia, Chile, and Patagonia, fuelling intense wildfires.

Elsewhere, the heat helped drive powerful rainfall systems, leading to flooding in South Africa and Mozambique.

Climate experts say this split-screen reality — freezing cold in one region, dangerous heat in another — is becoming more familiar.

Samantha Burgess of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts described January as a sharp reminder that the climate system doesn’t move in one simple direction everywhere at once.

A Cold Europe Didn’t Stop the Planet From Running Hot

Here’s the part that often confuses people: despite Europe’s deep freeze, January 2026 was still the fifth-warmest January globally on record.

Worldwide average surface air temperatures reached 12.95°C, which is:

• 0.51°C above the 1991–2020 average

• 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels

In other words, regional cold snaps no longer cancel out the broader warming trend.

Scientists stress that local weather and global climate aren’t the same thing — and January showed that contrast clearly.

Where It Was Warmer Than Normal

While Europe shivered, other regions experienced unusual warmth.

The biggest temperature jumps above average were seen in:

• The Arctic, especially the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

• Greenland and Baffin Bay

• The Russian Far East

Unseasonable warmth was also recorded across southern South America, northern Africa, central Asia, much of Australia, and even parts of Antarctica.

Arctic amplification — where the Arctic warms faster than the rest of the planet — continues to be one of the clearest signals of climate change.

Rain, Floods, and Waterlogged Cities

Temperature wasn’t the only story January told. Rainfall patterns were just as extreme.

Much of western, southern, and eastern Europe saw above-average rainfall, triggering flooding and disruption.

The worst-hit areas included the Iberian Peninsula, Italy, the western Balkans, Ireland, and the UK.

Outside Europe, wetter-than-normal conditions stretched across Canada, northern Mexico, the southern US, central Asia, Japan, southeastern Brazil, northern Australia, and southern Africa.

At the same time, large parts of central Europe, coastal areas of the US, southern China, much of South America outside the tropics, and southern and western Australia experienced drier-than-average conditions — a reminder that floods and droughts often go hand in hand globally.

Shrinking Sea Ice at Both Ends of the Planet

Copernicus scientists also examined sea ice levels, and the picture remains worrying.

In the Arctic, January’s sea ice extent was about six per cent below average.

The biggest losses were seen in the Barents Sea, Baffin Bay, and the Labrador Sea — areas that also experienced unusually warm air temperatures.

In the Antarctic, sea ice was around eight per cent below average.

While the Weddell Sea bucked the trend with slightly higher concentrations, most other regions — especially the Bellingshausen Sea — saw reduced ice coverage.

Less sea ice means darker ocean water, which absorbs more heat and accelerates warming.

Why Scientists Say This Matters

Climate researchers have been clear for years that a warmer planet doesn’t eliminate cold weather — it reshapes extremes.

Studies suggest climate change may increase the likelihood of disrupted jet streams, heavier rainfall events, and longer heatwaves.

January’s pattern fits neatly into that warning.

As Burgess put it, while human activity continues to drive long-term warming, societies must now prepare for greater volatility, not just gradual temperature rises.

The Paris Agreement and the Race to Limit Warming

All of this feeds into why the Paris Agreement remains so critical.

Signed in 2015, the global accord aims to keep temperature rises well below 2°C, while pushing hard to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

That lower target matters more than ever.

Previous research suggests that at higher warming levels, around a quarter of the world’s population could face significantly drier conditions, threatening food security and water supplies.

The agreement’s goals include peaking global emissions as soon as possible, accelerating reductions, and recognising that developing nations need more time and support to transition.

What Comes Next

Climate scientists expect more months like January — where extremes clash rather than balance out.

Cold spells, heatwaves, floods, droughts, and ice loss are all part of the same system reacting to added heat.

The message from researchers is blunt: adaptation and resilience are no longer optional.

Whether it’s upgrading flood defences, preparing energy systems for temperature shocks, or reducing emissions faster, January 2026 showed that the climate is already testing how ready we really are.

Summary

January 2026 delivered a striking contrast: Europe endured its coldest January in years, while much of the Southern Hemisphere baked under record heat.

Globally, the planet remained far warmer than historical norms, sea ice continued to shrink, and extreme rainfall caused widespread disruption.

Scientists say these mixed signals don’t contradict climate change — they underline it.