Bitcoin Struggles to Sustain Rally Toward $75,000 as Derivatives Traders Remain Cautious Across Global Markets

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown flashes of strength this week, pushing back to the $70,000 mark after dipping to $62,500 just a day earlier.

On the surface, the rebound looks encouraging, but beneath it, derivatives markets are telling a different story.

Futures premiums remain subdued, and options data shows that professional traders are still wary of downside risk.

Even with U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs bringing in $764 million over two days, confidence in leveraged bullish positions is low.

Traders’ caution stems from broader market risk-aversion, past liquidations, and lingering concerns about Bitcoin network security.

The market may be rallying, but fear continues to dominate sentiment.

ETF Inflows Provide Temporary Relief

The recent inflows into U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs partially offset the $1.2 billion in outflows seen over the previous eight trading days.

Such swings often reflect institutional activity, especially when prices dip below $65,000.

ETFs have become a critical mechanism for institutions to buy BTC without taking on spot exposure, helping stabilize price momentum in turbulent periods.

However, this stabilization hasn’t translated into increased appetite for futures.

Traders appear reluctant to take leveraged positions, signaling skepticism about whether Bitcoin can sustain a rally toward $75,000 anytime soon.

Derivatives Markets Show Lingering Caution

Data from Bitcoin futures and options highlight the cautious stance among professional investors.

The annualized premium for 2-month BTC futures sits at just 2%, well below the 5% neutral threshold.

This is an indicator that bullish momentum has been largely absent since January 31, when Bitcoin fell below $85,000 for the first time in nine months.

Options markets tell a similar story.

Put options are trading at a 14% premium over equivalent call options — far above the neutral -6% to +6% range.

While this is an improvement from the panic-induced 28% level recorded earlier in the week, fear remains the dominant sentiment.

Theories Behind Bitcoin’s Price Weakness

Market observers have proposed multiple theories to explain Bitcoin’s 32% decline over seven weeks, which began after the October 10, 2025 market crash that wiped out $19 billion in leveraged positions.

The timing coincided with former U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff hike on Chinese imports, which shook global markets.

Binance reportedly reimbursed $283 million to users impacted by system latency, oracle pricing errors, and other internal glitches.

While Binance founder Changpeng Zhao denied any intentional market manipulation, the incident fed broader concerns over market stability.

Other narratives point to quantum computing risks, particularly after Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood removed Bitcoin from his model portfolio.

Developers responded by drafting BIP-360, a proposal aimed at strengthening post-quantum cryptography onchain.

Additionally, speculation has emerged around quantitative trading firm Jane Street, whose disclosed BTC holdings in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust and Bitcoin mining stocks sparked rumors about market influence.

CryptoQuant researcher Julio Moreno noted that such positions are often part of delta-neutral strategies rather than manipulative moves.

Finally, the broader market’s risk-aversion — exemplified by Nvidia’s 5% share drop despite strong earnings — likely contributes to Bitcoin’s difficulty pushing past $75,000.

Impact and Consequences

Market Sentiment: Persistent caution in derivatives markets suggests that institutional players remain wary, potentially limiting price upside.

Investor Behavior: Retail and institutional traders may avoid leveraged exposure, preferring ETFs or spot purchases to reduce risk.

Regulatory and Security Considerations: Quantum computing risks and systemic concerns about exchanges like Binance underline the ongoing debate about Bitcoin’s long-term resilience.

Market Volatility: The combination of large ETF inflows, derivatives fear, and macroeconomic uncertainty is likely to keep BTC swings pronounced, challenging traders aiming for stable rallies.

What’s Next?

1. Derivatives Recovery: If futures premiums and options skew normalize, bullish momentum could resume.

2. ETF Influence: Institutional ETF flows may continue to buffer spot prices during volatile periods.

3. Macro Factors: Tariffs, risk-off sentiment, and technology sector moves could heavily influence BTC’s trajectory.

4. Security Updates: Implementation of BIP-360 or similar proposals may bolster confidence over the long term.

The market’s next steps will hinge on whether fear subsides and whether macroeconomic pressures ease, allowing Bitcoin to consolidate above $70,000.

Summary

Bitcoin’s recent rally to $70,000 masks underlying market caution.

Futures and options markets indicate that fear remains strong, institutional appetite for leveraged positions is low, and concerns over network security and macroeconomic factors persist.

ETF inflows provide temporary support, but Bitcoin’s path to $75,000 remains uncertain amid these challenges.

Bulleted Takeaways

• BTC retested $70,000 after a drop to $62,500, but derivatives markets remain cautious.

• U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded $764 million in net inflows, partially offsetting prior outflows.

• BTC 2-month futures premiums remain below neutral levels, signaling low bullish appetite.

• Options data shows put options trading at a 14% premium over calls, reflecting ongoing fear.

• Market volatility stems from previous liquidations, macroeconomic concerns, and security risks.

• Quantum computing and exchange infrastructure remain key long-term concerns.

• ETF and spot flows may stabilize prices, but caution dominates traders’ strategies.

This article is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research before making financial decisions.