Long before a by-election date has even been confirmed, Labour’s internal tensions are already spilling into public view.
Allies of Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham are furious, accusing Keir Starmer’s inner circle of trying to shut down a potential leadership threat before it can even take shape.
Behind the scenes, they claim, plans are being drawn up to quietly block Burnham from returning to Westminster — and with it, any serious shot at the Labour leadership.
Claims of a Pre-Emptive Block From No. 10
According to Burnham’s supporters, figures close to the Prime Minister are orchestrating what they describe — rather bluntly — as a “small d*ck energy” campaign aimed at stopping Burnham from standing as a Labour MP.
The fear inside Downing Street, they argue, is simple: once back in Parliament, Burnham would immediately become the most credible alternative to Starmer’s leadership.
Starmer loyalists are reportedly preparing to prevent the Manchester mayor from contesting a by-election in Gorton and Denton, a seat suddenly vacated by disgraced former minister Andrew Gwynne.
While Burnham has not officially declared his intention to run, the political machinery appears to be moving as if his candidacy is already a threat.
Why Andy Burnham Still Looms Large Over Labour
After a bruising 18 months in power, Burnham is widely viewed within Labour circles as the strongest potential successor to Sir Keir.
His high-profile role in Greater Manchester, coupled with his outspoken public presence, has kept leadership speculation alive — even without a Commons seat.
Known to supporters as the self-styled “King of the North,” Burnham has spent the past year openly flirting with a return to Westminster.
That alone seems to have been enough to trigger resistance from party insiders determined to keep him firmly rooted in Manchester.
The Seat That Could Change Everything
Gorton and Denton, expected to hold a by-election as early as May 7 alongside local elections, has quickly become the focal point of this internal struggle.
Labour figures are said to be considering procedural tactics that would effectively block Burnham from standing, including restricting the shortlist to women or ethnic minority candidates only.
Others believe the Labour National Executive Committee — currently dominated by Starmer loyalists — could simply find another way to prevent Burnham’s name from making it onto the ballot.
Subtle Signals From the Cabinet
Publicly, ministers are careful with their wording, but the message has been hard to miss.
Health Secretary Stephen Kinnock strongly hinted that Burnham should remain where he is, praising his work as mayor and stressing that his term runs until 2028.
Speaking on BBC Breakfast, Kinnock described Burnham as “doing a great job” and called him an “incredibly talented and effective leader” in Greater Manchester — words that sounded supportive on the surface, but to Burnham’s allies, read more like a polite nudge to stay put.
Labour Figures Push Back Against a ‘London Stitch-Up’
Not everyone inside the party is comfortable with that approach.
One Labour MP told Politico’s Playbook that blocking Burnham purely to prevent a leadership challenge would look “quite small-dick energy from No. 10.”
Jo White, MP for Bassetlaw and leader of Labour’s Red Wall group, went further, warning that any attempt to control the selection from London would backfire badly.
She argued the local party should decide its own candidate, adding that a centrally imposed decision would be “a disaster for Labour.”
The NEC and the Power to Say No
At the heart of the row sits Labour’s National Executive Committee.
Sir Keir’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, is reportedly weighing whether to use the Prime Minister’s majority on the NEC to block Burnham outright.
Party strategists are also said to be raising concerns about the financial cost of triggering a mayoral election in Manchester if Burnham resigns to pursue a Commons seat.
There are fears that a fresh mayoral race could hand momentum to Reform UK, which is gaining ground in the region.
How Burnham’s Route Back to Parliament Could Unravel
Before anything else, Burnham would need permission from the NEC to step down as mayor and seek election to Parliament — or resign outright before applying.
From there, he would have to make it onto the longlist for the seat, a step that should be straightforward given his profile.
The real challenge would come during the NEC interview process, where a panel decides who reaches the final shortlist.
Given the committee’s current makeup, allies fear this could be where his ambitions are quietly halted.
If he somehow clears that hurdle, local party members would then vote — a contest Burnham is widely expected to win.
Even then, victory at the ballot box is far from guaranteed.
A By-Election That’s No Longer Safe for Labour
Although Labour won Gorton and Denton by more than 13,000 votes in 2024, the seat is now viewed as a three-way fight.
Reform UK is surging, the Greens are close behind, and the Conservatives have confirmed they will also field a candidate.
Nigel Farage has already promised that Reform will throw everything into the contest, claiming Labour’s vote will be split.
His message was blunt: this is no longer a safe Labour seat.
Union Leaders Draw a Line in the Sand
Trade unions critical of Starmer’s leadership have warned against any attempt to manipulate the selection process.
Fire Brigades Union leader Steve Wright called it a “democratic outrage” if Burnham were barred from seeking selection.
With a seat on the NEC, Wright said he would not stand by while senior Labour figures were pushed out of the process, making it clear that resistance to any block would not be quiet.
Burnham’s Longstanding Leadership Ambitions
Burnham served as MP for Leigh from 2001 to 2017 and has already run for Labour leader twice.
His ambition to replace Sir Keir has never been much of a secret, a fact that reportedly earned him a frosty reception at last year’s party conference.
While Burnham insists he was “in the dark” about Andrew Gwynne’s plans to step down, allies have previously suggested he was preparing for exactly this opportunity — a by-election that could carry him back to Westminster.
The Fallout From Andrew Gwynne’s Exit
Gwynne’s departure followed revelations of offensive WhatsApp messages, including one where he appeared to wish death on an elderly constituent.
He was suspended last year and is understood to have agreed to retire on health grounds in exchange for assurances over his parliamentary pension.
Commons insiders suggest the arrangement could see Gwynne receive payments until pension age, followed by a full parliamentary pension — a package some estimate could be worth close to £1 million.
Starmer Stays Non-Committal as Pressure Builds
Asked whether he would support Burnham’s candidacy, the Prime Minister refused to be drawn.
Speaking to Channel 4 News, he urged the party to focus on the cost of living and global stability rather than internal politics.
Yet polling experts warn that avoiding the issue may not be an option for long.
A High-Risk Moment for Labour’s Leader
Professor Sir John Curtice says Burnham’s popularity puts Starmer in a bind.
Blocking him — and then losing the seat — would almost certainly rebound on the Prime Minister.
Letting him run, however, carries its own risk.
If Burnham wins, questions about Starmer’s leadership will only grow louder.
If he loses, Burnham’s leadership ambitions could be over.
Either way, a contest that hasn’t officially begun is already shaping up to be one of the most consequential political battles Labour has faced since coming to power.
What Comes Next?
With Reform UK mobilising, the Greens circling, unions on edge, and Labour divided, the Gorton and Denton by-election is rapidly becoming more than a local vote.
Whether Andy Burnham runs — and whether Labour lets him — could determine not just the outcome of one seat, but the future direction of the party itself.
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