Analysts warn Solana price may drop toward $50 as bearish technical patterns continue to pressure SOL globally

It hasn’t been a comfortable few weeks for holders of Solana.

After sliding to $67 on February 6, SOL has struggled to regain its footing.

The token now sits more than 72% below its all-time high of $295 — a brutal drawdown by any standard, even in crypto.

And if you zoom out to the higher timeframes, the charts are flashing warning signs that suggest the selling may not be done yet.

Traders who were hoping the worst was behind them are now asking a tough question: is $50 next?

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The Charts Are Pointing Lower

From a technical standpoint, things don’t look great.

On the weekly chart, SOL appears to have confirmed a classic head-and-shoulders pattern — one of the more reliable bearish reversal formations in technical analysis.

The neckline around $120 gave way in late January, and once that level cracked, momentum shifted decisively.

Measured from the height of the “head” down to the breakdown point, the projected target lands around the mid-$50s — roughly $57.

Some analysts are even eyeing the broader $50 to $60 range as the next meaningful support zone.

On the daily timeframe, there’s another concern: a bear flag formation.

If SOL closes decisively below $80, that pattern could open the door to a move toward $48.

That would represent roughly a 40% drop from current levels.

In short, multiple timeframes are leaning bearish — and when that happens, traders tend to take notice.

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A Glimmer of Hope From On-Chain Data

Not everything is screaming collapse, though.

One metric drawing attention is Solana’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) pricing bands.

This on-chain indicator compares the market cap to the value at which coins last moved.

Historically, when SOL dips near or below the lowest MVRV band, it has often marked long-term buying opportunities.

We saw this in March 2022, when SOL rebounded nearly 87% within weeks after touching similar deviation levels.

Similar bounce points occurred in late 2020 and mid-2022.

However — and this is important — there’s one massive outlier: the FTX collapse.

When FTX imploded in November 2022, Solana’s deep ties to the exchange triggered an extreme breakdown.

SOL didn’t just touch its MVRV floor — it smashed through it, eventually crashing to around $7.

That episode showed that even historically strong on-chain signals can fail under systemic stress.

So while the MVRV bands suggest SOL may be entering undervalued territory again, traders are cautious.

History offers both hope and warning.

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Institutional Demand Isn’t Disappearing

Interestingly, while the price has struggled, institutional appetite hasn’t evaporated.

US-based spot Solana ETFs — launched in late October 2025 — have recorded inflows in 66 out of 74 trading days.

That’s not the kind of pattern you see when big money has lost confidence.

On Tuesday alone, spot SOL ETFs added $2.9 million, bringing cumulative inflows to $877 million.

Globally, Solana-linked exchange-traded products pulled in $31 million in net inflows during the week ending February 13.

That steady flow of capital suggests that institutional investors may be taking advantage of weakness rather than running from it.

In crypto markets, price and sentiment don’t always move in lockstep.

Retail panic can coexist with institutional accumulation.

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The Bigger Picture for Solana

Solana remains one of the most active layer-1 blockchains in the space.

It’s known for high throughput, low transaction costs, and a growing ecosystem of DeFi platforms, NFT projects, and consumer applications.

In recent months, Solana has also seen renewed developer interest and growing social token experiments, which have helped maintain network activity even during price downturns.

Still, macro headwinds — including tighter liquidity conditions and broader crypto market volatility — continue to weigh on risk assets across the board.

And when Bitcoin sneezes, altcoins like Solana often catch a cold.

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What’s Next?

In the short term, all eyes are on $80.

If SOL loses that level on a daily closing basis, the bear flag scenario becomes more likely, with $50–$48 emerging as the next technical battleground.

However, if buyers defend current levels and MVRV signals prove accurate, we could see a relief bounce — potentially fueled by continued ETF inflows and bargain hunters stepping in.

Longer term, much depends on broader market conditions, Bitcoin’s direction, and whether Solana’s ecosystem growth can translate into renewed investor confidence.

Volatility is almost guaranteed. Direction is the real question.

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Summary

Solana has dropped more than 72% from its all-time high and recently fell to $67, with technical charts suggesting further downside toward the $50 range.

A confirmed head-and-shoulders pattern and a developing bear flag both point to additional risk if key support levels break.

At the same time, Solana’s MVRV pricing bands indicate the token may be approaching historically undervalued territory — though past events like the FTX collapse show that such signals are not foolproof.

Meanwhile, institutional interest remains strong, with steady inflows into spot Solana ETFs despite price weakness.

The coming weeks will determine whether SOL finds a bottom — or faces another leg down.