By-elections usually save their drama for the small hours, somewhere between a cold sports hall and a bad cup of tea at 3am.
This one didn’t wait. In Manchester’s Gorton and Denton seat, the political ground started shaking before the campaign posters were even printed.
Two major shocks landed almost back-to-back, and suddenly a contest that should have been routine became one of the most unpredictable races in the country.
The Andy Burnham Bombshell — And the Door Slamming Shut
The first jolt came with talk that Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham was preparing to defend the seat for Labour.
For a man who served at the heart of government during the Blair and Brown years, it would have been a high-profile return to Westminster.
But the bigger drama followed swiftly after.
Sir Keir Starmer stepped in and blocked Burnham from standing.
No one in Labour pretended this was a coincidence.
Burnham back in the Commons would almost certainly have been the opening move in a leadership challenge.
By stopping him, the Prime Minister may have bought himself some breathing space.
What he also did, however, was throw this by-election wide open.
Suddenly, It’s a Three-Horse Race
With Burnham sidelined, the contest no longer looks like Labour’s to lose.
One confirmed frontrunner is Matt Goodwin, the TV presenter standing for Reform.
The other two main challengers — Labour and the Greens — haven’t even finalised their candidates yet.
Even so, everyone on the ground agrees this is now a straight fight between Reform, Labour and a Green Party that has discovered a very different way of winning votes in this part of Manchester.
Why the Greens Smell Opportunity Here
Gorton and Denton includes wards where Muslim voters make up more than 70 per cent of the electorate.
That fact alone is reshaping the campaign.
The Greens have pivoted hard, focusing far less on climate slogans and far more on Gaza.
In a seat like this, they have worked out that attacking Israel mobilises more voters than talking about trees or traffic restrictions.
All parties quietly admit the same thing: keeping Burnham off the ballot has made life easier for Labour’s rivals.
A seat already known for producing the Gallagher brothers — and allegedly the phrase “mad as a hatter” — has now become a testing ground for a very different kind of politics.
The Resignation That Triggered It All
This by-election exists because former health minister Andrew Gwynne resigned suddenly, citing “health grounds”.
His political career, though, had been fatally damaged long before.
A year ago, leaked WhatsApp messages revealed a string of abusive remarks, including a foul-mouthed response to a constituent and a comment suggesting a psychologist sounded “too Jewish”.
Those comments aged badly. They looked far worse after a terrorist attack on Manchester’s Heaton Park synagogue left three people dead eight months later.
Whatever goodwill Gwynne once had evaporated, and his exit set this volatile contest in motion.
Muslim Voters Break with Labour
In the Gorton half of the seat, Labour’s traditional dominance is under real strain.
This week, The Muslim Vote — a coalition of Muslim organisations — urged supporters to back the Greens.
They openly admitted they would have preferred Labour if Burnham had stood.
Without him, they see the Greens as the strongest vehicle to win.
That endorsement has transformed the Green campaign.
Polls suggest they could even take their first parliamentary seat in the North, a fifth MP for a party more used to southern strongholds.
Inside the Green Rally That Changed the Mood
The Greens launched their campaign at Gorton’s Pakistan Community Centre.
The setting told its own story. Party leader Zack Polanski received a raucous welcome and a standing ovation for a speech that lasted barely five minutes.
Climate barely got a mention. Israel did.
Polanski attacked Reform as “racist”, mocked Labour as desperate to please Donald Trump, and accused the UK government of complicity in “genocide” through arms sales and intelligence sharing with Israel.
Former leader Baroness Bennett echoed the theme.
Net Zero, carbon emissions, and flights bans were nowhere to be heard.
Speaker after speaker — many from local Muslim communities — focused on Gaza.
One activist joked to loud laughter that the Greens were no longer just a “tree-hugging party for graduates and the middle class”.
Judging by the room, she had a point.
On the Streets, the Green Shift Feels Real
Walking through Gorton, the support isn’t theoretical.
It’s personal. Abdul Hakim, a 37-year-old driving instructor, puts it bluntly.
His family used to vote Labour. They won’t now.
“The government’s double standards on Palestine,” he says, have ended that loyalty.
His extended family votes together, he tells me — around 20 votes, all going Green.
That kind of bloc voting could be decisive.
Reform’s Opening — And Labour’s Squeeze
Polling suggests Reform is just ahead of Labour, with the Greens close behind.
Bookmakers have Reform narrowly leading the Greens, pushing Labour into third.
To stop Reform, there would need to be a left-wing squeeze.
Right now, momentum appears to be flowing the other way.
The Greens’ candidate choice could be crucial.
A stereotypical eco-activist might struggle. But one potential nominee stands out.
The Green Candidate Who Breaks the Mould
Fesl Reza-Khan doesn’t fit the usual Green image.
Former Parachute Regiment, finance company owner, blazer-wearing, softly spoken, with a grandfather who fought for Britain in the Second World War.
He grew up nearby in Oldham and previously stood as a Green candidate. He also co-chairs Muslim Greens.
He speaks calmly about the damage done by labels and abuse in politics.
He criticises demonisation — of Muslims and of Reform voters alike.
Whether or not he wins the nomination, he’s a reminder that this contest isn’t following familiar scripts.
Denton — Old Labour Territory, New Loyalties
Denton tells a different story. Traditionally white, working-class, and shaped by the old hat industry, this end of the seat used to be solid Labour.
Locals say the outgoing MP was once popular here. Pub owner Lauren Hill recalls his support for small businesses.
Others remember him personally — one man even sold him a puppy.
But the WhatsApp scandal changed everything.
Ask who they’ll vote for now, and the answer comes fast: Reform.
Reform Unveils a Familiar Face
Reform chose Denton’s Vault pub to unveil their candidate, Matt Goodwin.
Security was tight, the mood tense.
Goodwin, 44, is no stranger to cameras — a former academic and GB News presenter, known for provocative commentary and once eating a page of his own book live on air after a bad prediction.
Labour quickly resurfaced old clips, including one where he joked about being “unfortunate enough” to be in Manchester.
Reform hit back just as fast, accusing Labour of spreading false claims.
Goodwin insists the comment was about a Tory conference, not the city itself.
Goodwin’s Pitch — And His Risks
Goodwin talks like the academic he once was.
He calls the race a “referendum on Starmer” and says tribal politics are finished here.
Immigration, he insists, is the defining issue — not just for white working-class voters, but for minority communities who feel the system rewards rule-breakers.
He knows accusations of racism will follow him. He says he rejects sectarianism altogether.
Whether that argument lands will shape the final result.
Where Labour Still Hopes to Hang On
Labour’s faint hope lies in Burnage, the part of the seat most famous for producing Liam and Noel Gallagher.
It’s not deprived. It’s leafy. It has Range Rovers in the driveways.
Some voters here admit they’ll vote Labour simply to keep Reform out.
But even that support sounds tactical rather than loyal.
A Vote Driven by Anger, Not Nostalgia
“Don’t Look Back in Anger” may be Oasis’s most famous line, but anger is exactly what’s driving this by-election.
Voters are looking back — at scandals, broken promises, and perceived hypocrisy — and making up their minds accordingly.
On February 26, Gorton and Denton won’t just choose a new MP.
It will deliver a verdict on Labour’s leadership, Reform’s appeal, and a Green Party that has reinvented itself for one of the most unusual contests in recent political memory.
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