A new study suggests that a tactical alliance between the Conservatives and Reform UK could reshape British politics, potentially securing a commanding majority for the Right and dramatically weakening Labour’s hold on government.
The research, commissioned by The Mail on Sunday and conducted by Electoral Calculus, highlights how coordinated action in key constituencies could topple prominent Labour ministers and seize competitive seats.
How a Deal Could Change the Parliamentary Map
Electoral Calculus analyzed polling data for all 650 parliamentary constituencies under a hypothetical scenario in which Reform and the Tories avoid running against each other in selected winnable districts.
Their findings are striking: such a deal could convert 81 battleground seats, currently projected to fall to Left-wing parties, into victories for the Right.
Overall, a Conservative-Reform pact could deliver 457 seats, a whopping 131 more than needed for a majority.
Prominent Labour figures potentially at risk include Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Chief Secretary Darren Jones, Northern Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn, and Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens.
Examples of Potential Seat Shifts
The analysis highlights several dramatic outcomes if the parties unite tactically:
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Jeremy Hunt would retain his Surrey seat by defeating the Liberal Democrats if Reform stepped aside.
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Reform could capture Gorton and Denton, a Manchester seat eyed by Labour hopeful Andy Burnham.
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Green Party attempts to unseat Hilary Benn in Leeds would likely fail under a Right-wing pact.
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Seven “Blue Wall” seats in the South could swing back to the Conservatives from the Lib Dems.
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Sixteen “Red Wall” constituencies, projected to remain Labour under current polling, could flip to Reform.
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The calculations assume that where one Right-leaning party stands aside, roughly 80% of its voters transfer to the other, giving them a clear advantage.
Tactical Voting Gives the Right an Edge
Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus, explained: “Under the UK’s first-past-the-post system, the side which is most united has the best chance of winning.
Right now, the Right is split between two parties, but the Left is divided across three or four, giving an inherent advantage to the Right if they coordinate effectively.”
The study predicts Reform could gain 60 extra seats, while the Conservatives could pick up 21 additional seats, coming at the expense of Labour (31 seats lost), the Liberal Democrats (24), and the Greens (12).
Why Some Conservatives and Former MPs Call for Unity
Ex-Tory MP Brendan Clarke-Smith, who lost his seat in 2024 due to vote splitting, urged a strategic alliance.
He called it an “emergency response to saving the country from a potentially dreadful scenario,” warning that multiple Right-wing candidates in a constituency almost always hand victory to Labour.
Similarly, former MP Nick Fletcher argued that even with Reform’s strong current showing, “the polls will tighten and the other parties become a threat.
The Right needs to come together.”
High-Profile Ministers Could Be Vulnerable
Key Left-wing figures could see their parliamentary futures change under a pact:
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Wes Streeting, Ilford North, could lose to Reform despite holding the seat since 2015, thanks to a slim majority and demographic shifts in his constituency.
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Other ministers at risk include Stephen Doughty, Ian Murray, Dan Tomlinson, and Seema Malhotra.
Even if the Conservatives and Reform both stand candidates, Streeting faces a tough fight from independent or hard-Left challengers, particularly amid continuing protests in his constituency.
Leaders on Both Sides Reject a Deal
Despite the research, both Reform leader Nigel Farage and Tory leader Kemi Badenoch have dismissed calls for an electoral pact.
Farage called it impossible to collaborate “with dishonest people that don’t deserve our trust,” while a spokesman for Badenoch reiterated that “there will never be a pact under her leadership.”
Still, analysts suggest the idea won’t disappear.
With polls shifting and elections approaching, the Right could be forced to reconsider whether cooperation—or even a merger—is in their best interest.
The Stakes for Britain
The study underscores the high stakes in a country facing political fragmentation.
A united Right could not only claim a historic majority but also significantly weaken Labour, the Lib Dems, and the Greens.
Meanwhile, a fragmented Left risks failing to maintain control, potentially paving the way for dramatic shifts in Cabinet positions, policy direction, and Britain’s standing on issues such as national security and international alliances.
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