Nigeria has seen a striking increase in its crude oil imports from the United States, signaling a major shift in the nation’s energy supply strategy.
In the first ten months of 2025, Nigeria imported over 42 million barrels of US crude, reflecting a dramatic rise compared to the same period last year.
Year-on-Year Growth Paints a Clear Picture
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Nigeria’s imports between January and October 2025 totaled 42.13 million barrels, up sharply from 15.79 million barrels during the same timeframe in 2024.
This represents a remarkable 167 percent increase year-on-year, largely driven by rising demand from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which relies on imported crude for its operations.
Monthly Import Trends Reveal Fluctuations
The monthly breakdown shows interesting patterns.
Nigeria did not import crude in January 2025, but February saw 3.11 million barrels, slightly down from 3.61 million barrels in February 2024.
By March, imports surged to 5.25 million barrels, almost triple the 1.83 million barrels recorded in March 2024.
Other months also showed significant variation:
- May 2025: 3.79 million barrels, up from 2.08 million barrels in May 2024
- June 2025: a peak of 9.16 million barrels
- July 2025: 4.17 million barrels, slightly above last year’s figures
- August 2025: 6.24 million barrels
- September & October 2025: steady imports of 4.19 million barrels each
The figures indicate a steady and strategic ramp-up in crude imports to support growing refinery operations.
Private Refineries Drive Rising Demand
Industry analysts, as quoted by Petroleumprice.ng, point to Nigeria’s increasing reliance on imported crude to meet the feedstock needs of expanding privately owned refineries.
The report emphasized that US light sweet crude has become a preferred choice for complex refining processes, particularly at the Dangote refinery, which has been gradually increasing its intake.
“With 42.13 million barrels imported in just ten months, Nigeria’s US crude imports have nearly tripled compared to last year,” analysts noted.
“If these trends continue, full-year volumes could climb even higher.”
Expert Insight on Economic Implications
Speaking to Vanguard, petroleum economist Prof. Wumi Iledare highlighted the broader implications of this surge.
He described the trend as a structural shift with important consequences for Nigeria’s economy.
“The net impact will depend heavily on exchange rate stability, efficiency in domestic crude allocation, and how effectively refineries operate,” he said.
“Crude imports influence fuel prices and inflation largely through exchange rate channels.
If the economy remains stable and refinery utilisation is high, the outcome can support growth, income, and jobs.
“However, if domestic crude allocation and pricing issues persist, Nigeria risks becoming overly dependent on imported feedstock—a scenario that challenges energy security and long-term industrial optimisation,” Prof. Iledare warned.
Looking Ahead
The surge in US crude imports reflects Nigeria’s ambition to strengthen its refining sector and ensure adequate feedstock supply for private refineries.
How this trend unfolds in the coming months will be critical for domestic fuel supply, pricing stability, and overall economic growth.
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