As Newcastle United look to defend their Carabao Cup title, they face an uphill battle.
To even stand a chance of advancing past Manchester City, Eddie Howe’s side will need to achieve something they’ve never managed at the Etihad under his leadership: score a goal and secure a win.
But the challenge becomes even steeper when we consider history.
It’s been over a decade since any Newcastle manager has left the Etihad with a victory.
To overcome this, the team will need a performance like the one they produced in last season’s final, when they triumphed over Liverpool.
The task ahead feels daunting, especially after their recent defeat in Manchester.
A Familiar Yet Crushing Defeat
When Newcastle faced City at home, the result felt almost inevitable.
Pep Guardiola’s side were clinical, and their best player on the night, Jeremy Doku, was a constant threat.
Antoine Semenyo, a new addition to City’s squad, also had an immediate impact, scoring the opening goal despite being with the club for less than a week.
Eddie Howe was visibly frustrated when he learned that Semenyo wouldn’t be cup-tied for this match, a rule change he wasn’t expecting.
And, as it turned out, the goal was a bitter twist—one that had seemed almost scripted.
The pain didn’t end there. In stoppage time, Ryan Cherki added another for City, putting the tie almost beyond reach for Newcastle.
Guardiola’s Motivation: More Than Just a Trophy
For Guardiola, this competition might be the least prestigious of the four still available to Manchester City, but it could serve as an important psychological boost.
If he’s planning to leave at the end of the season, Guardiola will want to depart with one last trophy.
A win here could serve as the perfect reminder of City’s dominance, helping to set the tone for the rest of the campaign.
The Carabao Cup might seem minor, but for a manager whose legacy is built on relentless winning, the psychological value of silverware cannot be overstated.
If City take this trophy in March, it could set the stage for even more success by the time the season concludes in May.
A Long Road to Redemption for Newcastle
For Newcastle, the situation is clearer: they need a positive result at the Etihad.
The recent history at the stadium is grim, with the team failing to score or win in any of their five previous attempts under Howe.
The aggregate score over those matches? A devastating 14-0.
The task of defending their cup is far from easy, and this second leg in three weeks could be make or break for their season.
Interestingly, last year, Newcastle’s 2-0 win at Arsenal at a similar stage marked the turning point in their campaign, sparking a belief that had previously been lacking on Tyneside.
The memory of that victory and the eventual journey to Wembley remains fresh, with the fans and players alike drawing confidence from it.
Howe’s Strategy: Playing the Long Game
Eddie Howe’s approach to this tie started early, as he rested key players like Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton in the FA Cup to keep them fresh for this pivotal match.
Both midfielders are known for their tenacity, and Howe knew he would need them at their best.
The game itself started with a chance for Newcastle to seize the initiative.
Inside the first five minutes, Joelinton’s challenge set up a chance for Anthony Gordon to cross for Yoane Wissa.
However, the striker, who has been sidelined for a long stretch, missed the opportunity.
Had Wissa converted, the game could have gone very differently.
Instead, it was City who slowly began to take control of the match, with Doku wreaking havoc down the left wing.
The Belgian winger’s pace and skill were too much for Newcastle’s defenders to handle, although City couldn’t find the back of the net in the first half.
The Second Half: A Flurry of Missed Opportunities
The second half started with promise for Newcastle.
They came close twice to taking the lead, first through Wissa, who managed to get a shot off from a Gordon cross, only for City’s goalkeeper, James Trafford, to make an excellent save.
Then, Guimaraes took aim from outside the box, and his shot beat the keeper but rattled the post.
For a brief moment, it looked like Newcastle had weathered the storm and were on top.
But just when it seemed the tide had turned, City struck.
Doku made a dazzling run past Harvey Barnes and delivered a ball into the box that Silva diverted to Semenyo, who finished calmly to give City the lead.
To make matters worse for Newcastle, they were forced to play with ten men temporarily, as Jacob Ramsey received treatment for a head injury caused by an elbow from Doku.
A Long Wait, A Goal Disallowed, and Another Stab to the Heart
The action didn’t slow down. Semenyo thought he had his second goal of the night when he scored from a corner, but after a long delay, it was ruled out for offside, thanks to Erling Haaland’s involvement in the build-up.
At this point, the writing seemed on the wall for Newcastle.
Despite their best efforts, it was clear that City’s dominance and clinical finishing had tilted the game in their favour.
A final dagger came in stoppage time when Cherki scored a third for City, and Guardiola’s wild celebration said it all—the tie was all but sealed.
Looking Ahead: What Can Newcastle Do Next?
With the second leg looming, it’s clear that Newcastle have a mountain to climb.
The scoreline from the first leg leaves them with little room for error, and history is not on their side.
Eddie Howe’s side will need to summon all their resolve and ability to pull off something remarkable if they’re to have any chance of retaining the Carabao Cup.
While the odds are stacked against them, football has a way of throwing up surprises.
If Newcastle can find a way to score at the Etihad and keep City from running riot, there could still be a glimmer of hope.
But if their performance in Manchester was anything to go by, they will need to step up their game massively if they want to turn this tie around.
Match Facts and Player Ratings
Newcastle United (4-3-3):
Pope 6, Miley 6.5, Thiaw 6, Botman 6, Hall 7.5, Ramsey 6.5 (Tonali 69, 6), Guimaraes 6.5 (Trippier 87), Joelinton 6.5, J. Murphy 6 (Barnes 45, 6), Wissa 5.5 (Woltemade 69, 6), Gordon 6 (Elanga 69, 6)
Manager: Eddie Howe 6
Manchester City (4-2-3-1):
Trafford 6, Nunes 6 (Lewis 62, 6), Khusanov 6, Alleyne 6.5, Ake 6 (Ait Nouri 88), Silva 7.5, O’Reilly 6 (Rodri 62, 6), Semenyo 7, Foden 6 (Reijnders 62, 6), Doku 8 (Cherki 77), Haaland 5.5
Manager: Pep Guardiola 7
Goals: Semenyo 53’, Cherki 90+8’
Booked: Nunes, O’Reilly, Silva, Lewis