Even as climate change poses a growing threat, wealthy buyers continue to flock to Stinson Beach, a picturesque coastal enclave in California’s Marin County.
The town’s stunning views and serene beaches seem to outweigh any concerns about rising seas or extreme weather events.
Sea-Level Risks Are Clear—but Largely Ignored
Stinson Beach is not immune to the realities of climate change. Rising sea levels, increasingly frequent flooding, and coastal erosion are all documented risks. Yet, for residents and prospective homeowners, these warnings are not enough to deter interest. Ashley Bird, a local agent at Seadrift Realty, told the San Francisco Chronicle that buyers are fully aware of the risks but are willing to accept them.
“They know they’re taking a huge financial risk,” Bird said. “They’re just willing to take the risk because they love Stinson so much.”
Wealth Buffers Fear
Marin County is one of the richest counties in the United States. Between 2019 and 2023, the median household income reached $142,800—far above the California median of $96,300 and the national figure of $75,800. Stinson Beach, home to just over 360 residents, reported a median income of $117,000 in 2023.
This financial security means residents can absorb potential losses, invest in preventive measures, and repair damages when storms strike, making them less concerned about the warnings.
A Community Surrounded by Water
The town itself is a mix of hundreds of low-rise homes surrounded by the ocean, a lagoon, and a creek prone to overflowing. Calle del Arroyo, a single road, provides access to many homes but becomes nearly impassable during king tides. Compounding the risk, most homes rely on septic tanks, which are vulnerable to flooding during intense storms.
Stark Predictions for the Future
A recent Marin County report paints a sobering picture: sea levels in Stinson Beach are expected to rise by about 10 inches by 2040–2050, compared to 2000 levels. Natural disasters are projected to become more frequent by 2050, and by 2085, rising seas could reach 3.3 feet. At that point, a severe 100-year storm could inflict up to $1.3 billion in property damage.
Chris Choo, Assistant Director of the Community Development Agency, emphasized the importance of public awareness. “Public education efforts about sea level rise and the need for adaptation plans have been a constant mission for us, dating back more than a decade,” he said. “We hope this report sparks productive conversations among residents and the broader public.”
Residents Remain Unshaken
Longtime homeowner Vicki Sebastiani, who has lived in the area for two decades, downplayed the report. “I’ve not really seen a change at all,” she told the Chronicle. “I don’t know why they’re printing this fearmongering doomsday.”
Population data shows a slight decline of 1.35 percent from 2022 to 2023, but realtors insist that interest in the area has not waned despite climate warnings. Butch Haze of Compass Realty offered a candid perspective:
“If people are worried about tidal waves or tsunamis, then go buy in Tahoe,” Haze said. “But then you have to worry about fires or rockslides. Enjoy the hazard of your choice.”
The Bottom Line
For Stinson Beach buyers, love for the oceanfront lifestyle outweighs potential environmental risks. While climate change may eventually reshape the coastline, residents are banking on their resources, resilience, and sheer passion for the community to keep their dream homes intact.
Share on Facebook «||» Share on Twitter «||» Share on Reddit «||» Share on LinkedIn