The eyes of the world are on the Middle East as President Donald Trump delivered a forceful message from the White House this week: Hamas must disarm.
“They’re going to disarm, because they said they were going to disarm. If they don’t disarm, we will disarm them.
They know I’m not playing games,” Trump declared, underscoring the stakes of the newly signed Israel-Gaza peace deal.
Videos emerging from Gaza shortly after the agreement showed Hamas militants executing Palestinians in the streets, claiming they were targeting “Israeli collaborators.”
In reality, these killings targeted political opponents and highlighted the urgent need to ensure Hamas cannot rebuild its terror network.
The Risks Facing the Gaza Peace Plan
For months, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) has advised both the White House and the Israeli government on strategies for a lasting peace in Gaza.
FDD experts have consistently warned that the biggest threat to stability is Hamas’s continued possession of weapons.
Trump’s 20-point peace plan hinges on Hamas’s complete and irreversible disarmament.
The first stage of the plan involved Israel withdrawing forces from about half of Gaza, while Hamas released 20 Israeli hostages.
In exchange, Israel freed 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, including 250 serving life sentences for serious crimes.
The next steps in the plan call for further Israeli withdrawals and the deployment of an international stabilization force tasked with disarming Hamas, training a Palestinian police force, and laying the groundwork for Gaza’s redevelopment.
The Vision for Gaza’s Future
Under Trump’s vision, Gaza would be temporarily governed by a “Gaza Peace Board,” potentially chaired by the president himself and including international figures such as former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair and representatives from Arab and Western nations.
However, the plan’s success depends entirely on Hamas adhering to disarmament—a challenge complicated by the group’s links to the broader Muslim Brotherhood, with arms and financial support coming from Turkey and Qatar.
Hamas has historically resisted relinquishing power and weapons, using pauses in international attention to consolidate influence.
Lessons From History
Fears of Hamas reconstituting itself are grounded in history.
In Lebanon, after Israel’s 1978 limited incursion, the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) was established to maintain peace and disarm militants.
UNIFIL ultimately failed, and Hezbollah entrenched itself as a shadow government until recent Israeli military actions dismantled its strongholds.
Trump’s team knows that relying on an international stabilization force in Gaza carries similar risks.
Cooperation from countries like Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE is uncertain, raising concerns that Israel may once again bear the brunt of maintaining security in the region.
Israel’s Role and the White House’s Concerns
The alternative scenarios include a “Lebanon model,” in which Israel helps restore local governance after dismantling terror networks, or a “West Bank model,” where Israel continues daily operations to suppress Hamas activity with minimal cooperation from Palestinian authorities.
The White House fears that without a reliable international force, Gaza could revert to instability, forcing Israel to manage security largely on its own.
With so many moving parts, the peace plan’s long-term success will require sustained attention and decisive action from the U.S. administration.
The Road Ahead
As celebrations over the peace deal settle, the White House is acutely aware of the formidable challenge ahead: ensuring Hamas is fully disarmed and that Gaza can transition to stability.
The pressing question remains whether President Trump can focus on this monumental task amidst the myriad demands of his office, knowing the region’s future hangs in the balance.