It looks like Iran’s nearly 50-year-old clerical-military regime is running out of moves.
The latest U.S. airstrike on its nuclear facilities—greenlit by Donald Trump—has pushed an already embattled government closer to collapse.
For Iran’s ruling elite, especially its religious leaders and military commanders, it’s looking more like checkmate than a standoff.
From Bold Dreams to Desperate Reality
Iran once had grand plans: become the dominant force in the Middle East through a mix of ideology, power projection, and proxy warfare. But those ambitions are now unraveling fast.
The terrorist groups it bankrolled—like Hamas and Hezbollah—are in disarray.
Hamas can barely function, and Hezbollah, despite being a once-powerful force in southern Lebanon, has been hit hard and hasn’t come to Iran’s aid.
Even its closest ally, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, is out of the picture—now reportedly living in exile in Moscow.
That has severed one of Iran’s main regional supply lines and a key base for its Quds Force operations.
Air Superiority Lost and Infrastructure Destroyed
The biggest blow? Iran has lost control of its skies.
Israeli jets are reportedly striking targets across Iran with little to no resistance.
Key military commanders and nuclear scientists have been killed.
Missiles and launchers are being systematically destroyed.
This air dominance allowed the U.S. to swoop in.
America’s B-2 stealth bombers reportedly flew in undetected and hammered three of Iran’s most heavily fortified nuclear sites—Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow.
Iran didn’t even fire back.
Trump’s Tactical Surprise
Trump played the classic misdirection game.
While pretending to stall for time, he launched the strike just two days after hinting at a decision.
While everyone thought the bombers were coming from the Pacific, the actual strike team approached over the Atlantic.
Trump might call himself a dealmaker, but this time he was all-in on deception.
U.S. officials are cautiously calling the attack a major success.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the bomb-making facilities were “obliterated,” while General Dan “Razin” Caine said the damage was “sustained and severe,” though final assessments are still underway.
A Shaky Leadership in Tehran
Iran’s Supreme Leader, 86-year-old Ayatollah Khamenei, is reportedly in poor health and isolated.
Many of his top advisers are dead.
His long-standing strategy—arm Iran with nukes and dominate the region—is now in tatters.
And with no clear successor, Tehran appears rudderless at a critical moment.
The Risk of a Desperate Backlash
In response, Iran’s parliament has threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz—a major global oil route.
But only Khamenei and his security council can approve that move.
And while such a closure might spike oil prices globally, it would also cut off vital revenues Iran needs to pay its military and militias.
There’s concern that desperate hardliners could go rogue—launch missiles at Gulf states or U.S. bases in a last-ditch “scorched earth” campaign.
But such a move would likely trigger overwhelming retaliation from U.S. and Israeli forces, leaving Iran’s economy and government in ruins.
Could This Be the End of the Regime?
While both Washington and Jerusalem say they’re not pushing for regime change, they also know that a more moderate, post-Islamist government in Tehran is the only way to guarantee a nuclear-free Iran.
There’s no talk of U.S. boots on the ground, just the ongoing use of air power to keep the pressure on.
This U.S.-Israel alliance, quietly backed by Gulf Arab states, may well be turning the tide—not just for strategic goals, but for the Iranian people themselves.
The hope is that sustained pressure could lead to long-overdue change from within.
Europe’s Role? Basically None
Meanwhile, Europe is once again on the sidelines.
Leaders like Britain’s Keir Starmer criticized the strike but praised its outcome—a classic case of wanting the result without endorsing the method.
In truth, the real decisions are being made by the U.S. and Israel, not Brussels or London.